關注度與口碑效果對電影票房之影響

Abstract

眾所皆知電影產業為流行創新產業，由於在流行商品的擴散特性為指數型態的情況下，上市初期的銷售預測及後續的擴散速度分析更顯得重要，若能有一統計模型能精準預測，則能幫助行銷人員在對的時間投入適合的行銷資源。因為電影的產品生命週期相當短暫，可以讓人在三、四個月內觀察完整的產品擴散過程，因此本次研究以美國電影作為討論創新產品擴散的實證研究對象，並以Bass創新產品擴散模型為分析工具。 一般討論口碑效果大多是集中在評價的質與量，但若消費者在做產品查詢時，除了可以知道產品的評價外，還能了解產品受關注的程度，那其實產品關注度也是一種口碑傳遞，因此本研究認為關注度也是一種口碑效果，並希望能以有考慮關注度因素的口碑效果來建立具有預測效度的統計模型。

As it’s commonly known that the movie industry is very innovative. Because the diffuse characteristic of popular products is with exponential pattern, it’s more important to do the sales forecast at initial stage and analyze the diffusing speed. If the marketers have a statistical model to do the sales forecast well, then they can make right decisions based on the forecasts. Since the product life cycle of movies is very short, it is easy to observe the whole diffusion process in three or four months. Therefore, this study takes the American movies as empirical research and the main analytical method for this research is Bass Diffusion Model. In general, past scholar’s articles of which studied on word-of-mouth were focus on the variance and volume of reviews; however, if consumers could know the evaluation of the products and how many people paid attention to the products, then the degree of attentions which the products attract can be taken as a kind of word-of-mouth effect. By comparing different factors, it is hoped to find an efficient forecasting model with greater forecasting ability and help companies in making more effective marketing strategies.