台灣IC設計產業經營績效分析

Abstract

台灣IC設計產業發展30年能創造如此佳績，而影響其績效的因素為何值得探討。以往研究IC設計廠商績效因素多透過財務比例來評估，然而IC設計產業績效表現易受總體經濟因素影響，僅以財務比例來分析並不恰當，是以本文將整合財務面、總體面與政策面的影響因素為解釋變數來探討績效變化。其中，財務因素為公司的資產總額、應收帳款週率、存貨週轉率、固定資產週轉率、研發費用，總體經濟因素則包含美元兌新台幣匯率、外銷電子訂單金額、B/B ratio、TWSE電子類指數，至於政策因素為國庫支出、前期M2餘額。至於衡量公司營運績效的變數則以稅前盈餘為代表。 本文選取聯發科、聯詠、松翰、盛群、立錡、矽創，六家上市公司為研究對象，資料範圍為2004年至2012年的季報。為驗證金融海嘯前後是否存在差異，本文將進一步的以2008年Q4為分界點，分成2004年Q1至2008年Q4與2008年Q4至2012年Q4。 實證結果發現，在2004Q1∼2012Q4模型中，所有解釋變數皆呈具顯著水準，但相對僅考慮財務因素的模型，加入總體經濟與政策因素後的模型解釋能力較佳，顯示IC設計產業易受景氣波動與政府政策的影響。 若考慮金融危機的影響，發現危機前公司財務因素較能反映盈餘，危機後則是總體經濟與政策因素能反映盈餘。 最後，在考慮研發費用與B/B ratio 遞延效果下，顯示顯示研發費用對公司盈餘無法發揮顯著的正面效果，甚至在遞延二期下轉為負面影響；而B/B ratio可視為台灣IC設計業景氣的領先指標，進而影響公司盈餘，領先期數為一期。

Taiwan's IC design industry has achieved success for recent 30 years. Therefore, the factors which impact IC design industry's operating performance are worth to discuss. Most of the related papers focus on financial ratio to analyze operating performance. However, the IC design industry's operating performance may be affected by macroeconomic factors. It's not appropriate to analyze operating performance only with financial ratio. So, this paper would choose financial factors, macroeconomics factors and government policies as explanatory variables to analyze IC design industry's operating performance. The financial factors include assets, receivable turnover, inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover, research & development expense. The macroeconomics factors and government policies include exchange rate of USD to NTD, export orders for electronic items, b/b ratio, weighted stock index-electron, government spending, monetary aggregate. We use pre-tax income to evaluate operating performance. This paper focuses on 6 IC design companies listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange, including MediaTek, Novatek, Sonix, Holtek, Richtek and Sitronix, and uses quarterly report of these companies for 2004 to 2012. The financial crisis broke out in 2008, we will analyze the difference between 2004Q1 to 2008Q3 and 2008Q4 to 2012Q4. By empirical results, all explanatory variables have obvious positive effect on 2004 to 2012 model. Considering financial factors, macroeconomics factors and government policies as explanatory variables, which has higher explanatory power. Considering the model 2004Q1 to 2008Q3 and 2008Q4 to 2012Q4, empirical results show model 2004Q1 to 2008Q3 and 2008Q4 to 2012Q4 have higher explanatory power than model 2004 to 2012. Before financial crisis, financial factors significantly affected pre-tax income. However, macroeconomics factors and government policies significantly affected pre-tax income after financial crisis. The lag term of b/b ratio, which have positive effect to pre-tax income. It shows that the b/b ratio is a leading indicator of Taiwan's IC design industry. But the lag term of research & development expense does not have significant influence to pre-tax income.