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http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/79936完整後設資料紀錄
| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 吳俊傑(Chun-Chieh Wu) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Chun-Yeh Lu | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 盧俊燁 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-23T09:17:28Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2021-08-04 | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-11-23T09:17:28Z | - |
| dc.date.copyright | 2021-08-04 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2021-07-27 | |
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| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/79936 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本研究利用Weather Research and Forecasting Model（WRF）搭配ensemble Kalman filter（EnKF）同化系統，建立出一組80個成員的系集模擬，並探導斜方差結構在颱風快速增強前的變化以及颱風結構對斜方差估計的影響。在氣旋相對座標下，各變數的標準差（STD）結構隨颱風強度增加而量值上升，並且有垂直方向的延伸。風場STD極值落在最大風速半徑內側，這與最大風速半徑位置不確定性有關，而風速極值則扮演調整STD量值的角色。溫度場STD則受到暖心的發展影響，在中層有較大的STD量值，並隨颱風增強、STD極值逐漸轉移到中高層。氣壓場的STD則維持軸對稱的結構。另外當使用尤拉座標、且中心位置誤差較大時，位置誤差會主導STD的結構，使風場STD量值增加、質量場與溫度場的STD空間分布改變。 風場、熱力場與質量場的相關性結構普遍呈現隨颱風強度增加而內縮，並有垂直風向上的延伸。但熱力場所能夠產生的相關性較小，並且相關性結構會因參考點位置有一點改變而有較大的差異，這主要是因為熱力變數受到較多小尺度且非線性的過程影響。質量場與溫度場對風場的相關性與颱風本身的動力過程一致，包含中心氣壓對風場的負相關以及中心溫度對風場的正相關，但產生的相關性量值會受到風場結構以及熱力結構的影響。 另外也探討了與快速增強相關變數的斜方差結構。風場、溫度場對慣性穩定度有一定的相關性，對高層暖心的相關性則與颱風強度有關，當颱風越強、高層暖心越明顯時，風場和溫度場皆能對高層暖心產生較高的相關性，另外颱風熱力結構也會影響溫度對高層暖心的相關性。另外低層水氣和對流爆發的相關性結構則顯示了較小的量值和範圍，但這或許可以透過濾除高頻訊號改善。最後也發現了RI時間的不確定性會顯著影響水氣的相關性結構。 | zh_TW |
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| dc.description.tableofcontents | 致謝…………………………………………………………………………………….i 摘要…………………………………………………………………………………....ii 英文摘要（Abstract）……………………………………………………………….iii 目錄……………………………………………………………………………………v 圖目錄………………………………………………………………………………..vii 第一章 前言…………………………………….…………………………………….1 1.1 颱風增強機制……………….………………………………………………1 1.2 系集預報與資料同化 ………………….…………………………………..3 1.3 研究動機及目的………………...…………………………………………..5 第二章 研究工具與方法…………………………………..…………………………7 2.1 模式設定…………………………………………………..………………...7 2.2 同化方法……..………………………………………………………….…..7 2.2.1 卡爾曼濾波器…..……………………...…………………………….7 2.2.2 系集卡爾曼濾波器……………………...………………………..….8 2.2.3 系集平方根濾波器………………………………..…………………9 2.2.4 斜方差結構…………………………….…………………………….9 2.2.5 斜方差擴張和斜方差局地化…………………..………………..…10 2.3 實驗設計…………………………………………………………………...11 第三章 系集模擬結果………………………..……………………………………..12 第四章 斜方差結構變化….……………………….………………………………..14 4.1 系集STD結構……………………..……………………………………...14 4.1.1 氣旋相對座標………………………………………….…………..14 4.1.2 尤拉座標及位置誤差對STD結構的影響…………………….….16 4.2 系集相關性結構……………………………………..………...…………..19 4.2.1 變數自身的相關性結構………………………………...………….19 4.2.2 溫度場對風場的相關性結構…………………………...………….21 4.2.3 氣壓場對風場的相關性結構…………………………...……….....22 4.2.4 相關性結構空間變異………………………………...………….....23 4.3 與RI相關之變數斜方差結構……………………………...……………...24 4.3.1 慣性穩定度………………………………………..………………..24 4.3.2 高層暖心……………………………………………..………….….25 4.3.3 對流爆發（CB）…….……………………….……..…………..….27 4.3.4 低層水氣………………………….………………..……………….28 4.3.5 RI時間不確定性的影響……………………………………………32 第五章 總結與未來展望………………………………….………..……………….34 5.1 結論……………………………………………………….………………..34 5.2 討論………………………………………………………………………...36 5.2 未來展望…………………………………………………..……………….38 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………..39 附圖…………………………………………………………………………………..45 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 斜方差結構 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 颱風 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 快速增強 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 資料同化 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 系集預報 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | tropical cyclone | en |
| dc.subject | error covariance structure | en |
| dc.subject | ensemble forecast | en |
| dc.subject | data assimilation | en |
| dc.subject | rapid intensification | en |
| dc.title | 颱風快速增強前的誤差斜方差結構變化 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | Evolution of the Error Covariance Structure Associated with Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones | en |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 109-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 楊舒芝(Hsin-Tsai Liu),連國淵(Chih-Yang Tseng) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 颱風,快速增強,資料同化,系集預報,斜方差結構, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | tropical cyclone,rapid intensification,data assimilation,ensemble forecast,error covariance structure, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 94 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU202101792 | |
| dc.rights.note | 同意授權(全球公開) | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2021-07-28 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 大氣科學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 大氣科學系 | |
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