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標題: | 返鄉投票市場的實證模型分析:台灣2014公職人員選舉 An Empirical Model of Vote Market :Taiwan election 2014 |
作者: | Shih-Yang Lin 林世揚 |
指導教授: | 朱敬一(C. Y. Cyrus Chu) |
關鍵字: | 政治,投票率,投票成本,投票行為,地方選舉,離散選擇模型,隨機係數,多項邏輯迴歸, Politics,turnout rate,voting cost,voting behavior,local election,discrete choice model,random coefficient,multinomial logit model, |
出版年 : | 2016 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 受限於開放不在籍投票,過去分析投票成本如何影響投票行為的研究,僅能觀察到選民在有限範圍內的投票成本。本文使用台灣2014 年地方公職人員選舉週末的交通量資料與平常週末的交通資料對比,得出返鄉投票的交通資料。再結合人口普查資料計算各地不在籍人口的投票率後,以BLP (1995) 提出的隨機係數多項邏輯迴歸模型分析返鄉投票的時間成本與金錢成本對投票率的影響。估計結果顯示時間與金錢成本、選民居住地的人口數及平均月收入均與返鄉投票效用有負相
關,而教育程度則相反。進一步分析可發現,選民平均願付出115 元換取減少一小時的投票時間。居住地人口每減少100 萬人,平均月收入每減少一萬元與居住地大學以上學歷人口比率每提高10%,分別能夠增加選民平均願付價格158 元、306 元與276 元。反事實分析結果顯示減少10% 的金錢成本,返鄉投票率會上升約1.12%;如開放不在籍投票,返鄉投票率會由30.14% 上升到56.49%。本文結論顯示改變投票成本能夠改變投票率,甚至進而影響選舉結果。 Allowing absentee voting, researchers can only observe individuals’ voting costs in a limited range. I compare the transportation volume during the weekend of Taiwan Local Election, 2014 with regular weekends, calculating the volume of travel-to-vote electorate. Then match these volume with population census data to acquire turnout rate of voters whose resident cities are different from their registered cities. With the turnout rate, I then apply the method proposed by BLP (1995) to analyze the effects of time and pecuniary cost to turnout rate. The estimation result shows that time and pecuniary costs, population and income are negatively related to voters’ willingness to pay for traveling to vote. In contrast to these variables, education is positively related. Moreover, the counterfactual analysis shows that a 10% drop to all ticket prices would increase the turnout rate of travel-to-vote electorate by 1.12%. If absentee voting is allowed, this turnout rate would increase from 30.14% to 56.49%. I therefore conclude that changing the voting cost can affect turnout rate and possibly swing the outcome of an election. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/7835 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201603462 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
電子全文公開日期: | 2026-08-19 |
顯示於系所單位: | 經濟學系 |
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ntu-105-1.pdf 此日期後於網路公開 2026-08-19 | 2.47 MB | Adobe PDF |
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