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標題: | 台灣房價影響要素探討 The Factors of Housing Prices in Taiwan |
作者: | Ming-Tse Kao 高銘澤 |
指導教授: | 林建甫 |
關鍵字: | 單根檢定,向量自我迴歸模型,Granger因果關係檢定,衝擊反應函數,虛擬變數,房地合一稅, Unit Root Test,Vector Autoregression,Granger Causality Test,Impulse Response Function,Structure Breaks,Joint Tax on Building and Land Sales, |
出版年 : | 2016 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本文選用了信義房價指數、房價趨勢分數、五大行庫房貸利率與M2貨幣供給額作為內生變數來建構VAR模型,欲探討政策相關變數與人民預期是否真能影響房價指數,同時還設立兩個不同時點的外生虛擬變數探討房價指數是否有因政府政策產生影響,最後再用衝擊反應函數探討各變數未預期衝擊對於房價指數與房價趨勢分數的影響。
實證結果發現,房價指數成長率會受到落後一季的房價趨勢分數成長率顯著影響,五大行庫房貸率成長率不太顯著,M2貨幣供給額成長率不會影響房價指數成長率,而在2014年Q2時政府政策有效地影響房價。再去細看房價趨勢分數發現所有內生變數皆無法顯著解釋其變動,其在2014年Q2亦有明顯轉變。 綜合以上可知政府政策對於房價的多空扮演極其重要的角色,文末並提出三點對於政策面的建議。 This study uses VAR model to investigate the relationship between Sinyi house price index, housing price trend score, mortgage interest rate of Taiwan’s five leading banks and M2 in order to explore which key variables affect Sinyi house price index. Also, two dummy variables are added to the VAR model as its exogenous variables so as to discuss whether the government policies are effective. Finally, Impulse Response Function is applied to examine the impact of unexpected impulse on Sinyi house price index and housing price trend score. The empirical results show that the growth rate of Sinyi house price index is significantly affected by one-period-lagged growth rate of housing price trend score; however, it is not very significantly influenced by the growth rate of mortgage interest rate, and the growth rate of M2 doesn’t have any impact on the growth rate of Sinyi house price index. In 2014Q2, government policies significantly affected Sinyi house price index. In addition, there is no endogenous variable that can influence the housing price trend score and the score changed significantly in 2014Q2. To conclude, government policies play an important role in Sinyi housing price index. There are three recommendations for government policies regarding housing prices in Taiwan at the end of this study. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/78104 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201603211 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 經濟學系 |
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