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The Factors of Housing Prices in Taiwan
Unit Root Test,Vector Autoregression,Granger Causality Test,Impulse Response Function,Structure Breaks,Joint Tax on Building and Land Sales,
|Publication Year :||2016|
This study uses VAR model to investigate the relationship between Sinyi house price index, housing price trend score, mortgage interest rate of Taiwan’s five leading banks and M2 in order to explore which key variables affect Sinyi house price index. Also, two dummy variables are added to the VAR model as its exogenous variables so as to discuss whether the government policies are effective. Finally, Impulse Response Function is applied to examine the impact of unexpected impulse on Sinyi house price index and housing price trend score.
The empirical results show that the growth rate of Sinyi house price index is significantly affected by one-period-lagged growth rate of housing price trend score; however, it is not very significantly influenced by the growth rate of mortgage interest rate, and the growth rate of M2 doesn’t have any impact on the growth rate of Sinyi house price index. In 2014Q2, government policies significantly affected Sinyi house price index. In addition, there is no endogenous variable that can influence the housing price trend score and the score changed significantly in 2014Q2.
To conclude, government policies play an important role in Sinyi housing price index. There are three recommendations for government policies regarding housing prices in Taiwan at the end of this study.
|Appears in Collections:||經濟學系|
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