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標題: | 臺、美、中跨國景氣互動之分析—從產業關聯層面探討 Industry Business Cycle Linkages among Taiwan, U.S.A. and China |
作者: | Chuan-Yu Chiang 姜權祐 |
指導教授: | 梁國源(Kuo-Yuan Liang) |
關鍵字: | 景氣循環同步性,產業關聯,單根檢定,共整合檢定,誤差修正模型, Business Cycle Synchronization,Industrial Correlation,Panel Unit Root Test,Panel Cointegration Test,Error Correction Model, |
出版年 : | 2017 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 過去關於跨國景氣循環同步性的研究,多著重於總體經濟產出的角度,僅可初步瞭解國與國之間,整體是否具有景氣互動關係,而無法瞭解究竟是透過什麼管道或產業結構進行傳遞,是為見林不見樹。本文使用臺灣、美國與中國各級產業產出資料,分析跨國景氣是如何透過產業結構進行傳遞,是為見樹又見林。此外,由於中國官方並未揭露完整的各級產業產出資料,因此本文引用並延伸日本經濟產業研究所於2015年發布之“China Industry Productivity 3.0”資料進行分析。
本文將產業劃分為14個大業別與16個製造業中業別,樣本涵蓋時間為1981-2014年,並將時間分為三個時期:1981-1989年、1990-2005年、2006-2014年,針對不同時期探討臺灣各業產出與美、中對口業別產出相關係數的變化,結果顯示臺灣製造業整體而言與美、中對口業別關聯程度呈上升走勢。本文亦從16個製造業中業別中挑選5個代表性產業,分別為石油及煤製品、化學材料、製品與藥品、金屬製品、電子零組件與電腦、汽車與其他運輸工具等業別,上述產業所對應之產品出口值占我國總出口值的5成以上。其中,臺、美在化學材料、製品與藥品、汽車與其他運輸工具等2個業別產出的關聯程度呈上升走勢;在石油及煤製品、電子零組件與電腦等2個業別呈先升後降走勢;在金屬製品產業則呈先降後升走勢。另一方面,臺、中在石油及煤製品、電子零組件與電腦、汽車與其他運輸工具等3個業別產出的關聯程度呈上升走勢;在金屬製品產業呈先升後降走勢;在化學材料、製品與藥品產業則呈先降後升走勢。 本文使用追蹤資料單根檢定,結果顯示16個製造業中業別的產出資料「部份」具有零階非定態,一階差分後定態之特性。接著,進一步使用追蹤資料共整合檢定,顯示臺、美、中在16個製造業中業別與5個代表性產業之間「部分」具有共整合關係,且分別具有不同的長期均衡關係。文末使用誤差修正模型,顯示16個製造業中業別中的食品、飲料與菸草、紙與印刷、化學材料、製品與藥品、非金屬製品、基本金屬、電子零組件與電腦、金屬製品等7個產業,具有臺、美、中的共整合關係。以5個表性產業而言,上述關係主要表現在化學材料、製品與藥品、金屬製品、汽車與其他運輸工具等3個產業。 The cross-country business cycle synchronization has been discussed extensively in literature. The relevant research most puts emphasis on the macroeconomic output data, which can only explain the output correlationship cross countries in general. This paper uses the industry-level output data to examine the business cycle correlationship among Taiwan, U.S.A. and China. Moreover, the main goal of this paper is to explain the mechanism of the business cycle transmission through the industrial structures. However, a problem, the system of Chinese national accounts is not consistent with Taiwan and U.S.A., has occurred. To solve this problem, the industry output data of China is now available on the RIETI website and is based on the Chinese input-output tables. This paper reclassifies the industrial structures into 14 main sectors and 16 manufacturing sub-sectors from 1981 to 2014. And the full sample periods are proceeded to be divided into 3 sub-periods, 1981-1989, 1990-2005 and 2006-2014. The empirical results support the following conclusion: Taiwanese manufacturing industry outputs are strongly correlated with corresponding U.S.A. and Chinese sectors in general. Furthermore, 5 representative manufacturing industries are discussed and the corresponding goods exported value account for above 50 percent of the total export in recent years. The result shows that the Taiwan-U.S.A. (TW-US) industrial output correlations mainly occurs in chemical products and motor vehicles, bodies, trailers, parts and other transportation equipment (MBTPO); for petroleum and coal products and computer and electronic products, the links between TW-US grow at the begining and then decline; for fabricated metal products, the link between TW-US declines at the begining and then grows. In contrast to the TW-US findings, the Taiwan-China (TW-CH) industrial output correlations mainly occurs in petroleum and coal products, computer and electronic products and MBTPO; for fabricated metal products, the link between TW-CH grows at the beginning and then declines; for chemical products, the link between TW-CH declines at the beginning and then grows. This paper also examines the panel unit root tests and the result shows that the output data of 16 manufacturing sub-sectors is nonstationary in levels and stationary in first-order differences in some sub-sectors. Then the panel cointegration tests are adopted, the result shows that the long-run relationship among Taiwan, U.S.A. and China (TW-US-CH) exists but there are different long-run patterns in 16 manufacturing sub-sectors and 5 representative manufacturing industries respectively. Finally, the error-correction model is discussed, the result shows that, for 16 manufacturing sub-sectors, the links among TW-US-CH mainly occurs in the food and beverage and tabacco products, paper products, printing and related support activities, chemical products, nonmetallic mineral products, primary metals, computer and electronic products and fabricated metal products. Regarding to the 5 representative manufacturing industries, the link among TW-US-CH mainly occurs in chemical products, fabricated metal products and MBTPO. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/76448 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201700209 |
全文授權: | 同意授權(全球公開) |
電子全文公開日期: | 2022-02-21 |
顯示於系所單位: | 經濟學系 |
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ntu-106-R02323002-1.pdf | 3.91 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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