國家資本結構理論與舉債期長實證分析

Abstract

本研究探討國家資本結構與抵換理論和融資順位理論的關聯，以及國家財務特性對國家舉債期長的影響。本研究利用Bolton (2016)所定義的國家資本結構和Fama and French (2002)所使用測試公司資本結構理論的實證架構，探討國家資本結構所遵循之理論。實證結果發現，已開發國家遵行融資順位理論，開發中國家則無法推斷其所遵行的資本結構理論，推論開發中國家可能因為融資決策較無法自主，與現有以獨立公司為主體的資本結構理論不相符導致無法套用現今的公司資本結構理論做出相對應解釋。另外，本研究依據開發程度、主權信用評等、獲利能力、投資機會進一步探討國家財務特性對國家舉債期長的影響，發現已開發國家之結果與Myers (1977)、Barclay and Smith (1995)所實證的公司投資機會假說結果相反，但與Diamond (1991)、Barclay and Smith (1995)所實證的公司信用評等假說結果一致，顯示國家舉債期長主要受到再融資風險的影響；開發中國家財務特性對國家舉債期限的影響結果較不顯著，推論是因為在劃分開發中國家時包含中高、中低、低收入三種類別之國家，導致結果彼此抵消。

In the spirit of Bolton (2016) and Fama & French (2002), this study has two major purposes: (1) to test the nations’ capital structure of the Trade-Off and Pecking Order theory. (2) to investigate the influence of countries’ financial characteristics on national debt maturity choices. The empirical results show that developed countries compliance pecking order theory, but developing countries cannot infer their compliance theory. In addition, based on the degree of development, sovereign rating, profitability and investment opportunities, this paper explore the impact of financial characteristics on countries’ debt maturity choices. The results indicating that countries’ debt maturity is mainly affected by refinancing risk, consistent with Diamond (1991) and Barclay and Smith (1995) the corporate credit rating hypothesis.