因應氣候變遷之水文生態系統服務水資源管理調適方案

Abstract

全球暖化氣候變遷是人類正面臨的挑戰，聯合國科學組織IPCC在全球的敦促下陸續發布了氣候變遷的科學報告，各國政府也相繼提出因應策略，2015年聯合國氣候大會通過巴黎協定，期望各國能共同合作削減溫室氣體的排放來減緩全球暖化的趨勢，即使如此我們仍然必須面對全球升溫可能在2030~2052年達到1.5°C的情境，地球的水資源在這個變遷下必然會受到衝擊，因此須有調適策略來因應這個改變，本研究以因應氣候變遷選擇水資源調適方案作為主題。 本研究以花蓮為研究區域，首先用傳統的系統動力模式檢驗氣候變遷造成缺水情境的未來變化，再據以提出調適方案，然後利用資訊空隙決策方法對不同方案做系統性的績效評估，模擬出每一方案的不同缺水缺口所對應的強健度，協助決策者選擇調適方案；生態系統服務的概念自1981年被提出之後，因其可以量化生態系統服務的價值，所以已普遍將之納入水資源管理的決策系統，本研究以水文生態系統服務作為指標，量化四項水文生態系統服務功能的未來變化，並探討各項服務受氣候變遷影響其熱點分布的變化；環境議題在決策時行政運作上，常高度倚賴專家意見，邀請專家參與決策，本研究認為不同領域專家對生態系統服務的觀點差異，可能是決策風險的一個來源，因此本研究以專家問卷進行分析，了解專家對於生態系統服務的評價與其專業背景的關聯性，並比較其支付意願的差異，探討了不同領域專家選擇調適方案的優先考量因素，據此我們可以知道專業領域認知差異如何影響決策的選擇。 本研究從量化的工程系統指標出發，利用了非傳統量化指標分析的新方法：資訊空隙決策法，來協助在氣候變遷情境下進行決策分析，另也用近年新發展的水文生態系統服務為指標，探討氣候變遷對各項服務功能的影響，最後利用專家問卷分析不同領域專家的觀點，如何對決策過程造成影響，希望這個在決策端所做的研究，可以拋磚引玉帶動更多的決策技術的精進，讓我們在面臨氣候變遷的挑戰之下，可以更有效的找到最合宜的調適方案，迅速的走出環境發展的困境，看見實績。

Global warming such a climate change is a challenge that human being is encountering nowadays. Per urging under global expectation the science organization of the United Nations, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has released a series of assessment reports. Many national governments accordingly declared the strategy in response to such a global pressure. In 2015 Paris Agreement was approved in UNFCCC (COP21) in a hope that all countries can unify to cut GHG emission and to slow down the global warming speed. Even this action is realized, the Earth still will face the situation that it is warmed up to 1.5°C in 2030~2052. In this case, Earth’s water resource must receive strong impact; therefore, adaptation strategy is urgently needed. This study would conduct such a thematic approach to work on how to choose optimal water resource adaptation plan under the threat of the climate change. This study selects Hualien as the experimental area. The first sub-project is still a conventional task to evaluate the water deficiency by modeling of system dynamics under future scenarios predicted by the assessment reports of IPCC. A set of adaption plans are accordingly proposed to relieve the deficiency crisis; thereafter IGDT method is adopted to select the optimal one by considering the robustness of the plans. The second sub-project is to apply the function indices of ecosystem services into the consideration. The concept of ecosystem service was published in 1981. It is then adopted into decision process for water adaptation since it can quantify the service changes. This study utilized four indices from hydrological ecosystem service to evaluation the future service changes under global warming. Also used is to analyze the spatial hot spots which helps to locate the significant local change. The last sub-project herein is related to the expert’s opinion in decision process. Experts with relevant knowledges are commonly invited to participate the decision making and sometimes highly relied on. Nevertheless, the viewpoints of different experts from different knowledge fields are occasionally various. This study would like to analyze the influence that experts’ different opinions can cause the risk in decision making. A survey 46 expert questionnaires is conducted; therein, willingness to pay is also embedded. Based on the results on the correlation and levels of willingness, this study can qualitatively discriminate how experts’ knowledge backgrounds make the priority difference in decision making. This dissertation approach initiated from quantitative engineering index and further incorporated unconventional method: IGDT to help clarify the priority of the plans under consideration of future climate change. Also this approach adopted the concept of the hydrological ecosystem service and used its changes on service functions to assess the feasibility of possible adaptation plans. The last sub-project is to conduct an expert questionnaire for the purpose of understanding what influence would be made in decision process if participants are from different knowledge fields. It is hoping such work on optimizing decision process can further encourage more future relevant studies. Soon the scientific outcomes can be accumulated enough to enable the refinement of the decision process and help efficiently sort out the most appropriate adaptation plan. After all human society may have better chance to find a way out of the dilemma caused by global warming.