關稅與稅賦政策對我國外人直接投資的實證分析

Abstract

本文以實證方式，探討關稅及整體稅賦政策對於外人直接投資（Foreign Direct Investment,FDI）的影響效果；分析結果發現，關稅與稅賦政策對於產業發展、貿易開放度具有一定的影響力，並可藉此影響FDI的流入金額。在方法上，本文蒐集了自1981年至2018年間我國FDI流入金額、歷年平均關稅、我國相較於OECD國家平均稅賦負擔比例、進出口貿易總值、工業生產毛額占GDP比率等總體資料，據以分析各變數對於FDI的箇中連動關係。 由於上述總體時間序列均為非定態，經過ADF單根檢定、Johansen共整合檢定，及Granger因果關係檢定後，結果顯示：在稅賦政策上，不論是關稅稅率及相對稅賦負擔率均能領先預測外人投資金額，具有直接的統計上因果關係。而由於關稅與整體稅賦優勢對於我國工業生產毛額占GDP比例及貿易開放度亦具有領先的影響關係，且貿易開放度與工業化程度對於FDI亦有良好的領先預測能力，故建議可透過關稅與整體賦稅負擔率的調整，優化產業結構及提升貿易開放度，建置友善投資環境，以達到擴大FDI投資規模的長期效果。最後，實證結果並發現，工業生產毛額占GDP的比重與貿易開放程度(依存度)互為因果，彼此間均有顯著的預測能力。

This paper explores the effects of tariffs and overall taxation policies on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in an empirical manner. The analysis found that tariff and taxation policies have a certain influence on industrial development and trade openness, and in turn, it affects the inflow amount of FDI. In research methods, this paper collected the amount of FDI inflows, average annual tariffs, the ratio of tax burden in Taiwan to the average tax burden of OECD countries, the total value of import and export trade, and the ratio of industrial output to GDP, etc., from 1981 to 2018.In order to analyze the linkage relationship between each variable for FDI. Since the above time series are non-stationary, after the ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and Granger causality tests, the results show that: in the taxation policies, both the tariff rate and the relative tax burden rate are Leading Indicators to Forecast FDI, and has a direct statistical causal relationship. Because tariffs and overall tax advantages have a leading influence on Taiwan's industrial output value and GDP openness, and trade openness and industrialization have good leading predictive power for FDI. We believe that the adjustment of tariffs and the overall tax burden rate can be used to optimize the industrial structure and enhance trade openness, build a friendly investment environment, and expand the scale of FDI investment. Finally, the empirical results show that the ratio of industrial output to GDP and the degree of openness of trade are mutually causal, and each has significant predictive power.