兩岸關係的紅色警戒：中共官媒訊息文字探勘，2018年1月至2020年9月

Abstract

中共官媒係中國共產黨的喉舌，致力為其宣傳並引導輿論風向，本文以七個中共官方訊息窗口作爲研究對象，運用Python程式語言進行網絡爬蟲及文字探勘，萃取官媒新聞中對臺危險或友好的訊息，並將之對照美、中、臺間重要大事，目的在於透過這些媒體渠道，觀察中共對臺威脅的趨勢變化，從中瞭解中共對臺態度轉折，以提出相關示警。 研究的結果表明，美國對臺政策是挑起中共對臺威脅的主要因素，而中共對臺策略亦因臺灣大選結果發生轉折，且隨著新冠疫情的蔓延，中共對臺威脅持續且加劇。總體而言，2018年至2019年，中共對臺實施和戰兩手策略；2020年，中共對臺態度更趨強硬，且該階段亦為本研究中，警戒訊號最為強烈的時期。

These Chinese state-run news organizations have been mouthpieces of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for a long time. They work to spread CCP propaganda and to lead public opinion. This study took seven Chinese media outlets as the research object, and used the Python programing language to conduct web crawling and text mining analysis. This research extracted messages that were dangerous or friendly to Taiwan from these Chinese state media reports and compared them with important events between the United States, China and Taiwan. We anticipate that this research can observe the trend of the CCP’s threat to Taiwan through these media channels, understand the CCP’s attitude toward Taiwan from the trend changes, and further warnings issued if necessary. The results of this study showed that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan was the major provoking factor for the CCP’s threat to Taiwan. In addition, the CCP’s strategy towards Taiwan has undergone a turning point due to the outcome of Taiwan’s election. Moreover, the CCP’s threat to Taiwan as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has continued to intensify. As a whole, from 2018 to 2019, CCP has implemented Carrot-and-Stick Dual Strategies. However, in 2020, it took a tougher stance on Taiwan. According to the results of the present study, it could be concluded that the warning signal is the strongest in 2020, and furthermore, the various threats from the CCP, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is 'increasingly severe.'