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標題: | 為什麼是「統派」?為什麼是「獨派」?~臺北市選民對2014年市長選舉兩位主要候選人統獨立場的判斷基礎分析 Why Pro-Unification? Why Pro-In dependence? The Analysis of How Voters Judge Two Main Candidates’ Unification-Independence Stances in Taipei Mayoral Election in 2014 |
作者: | Pei-Chi Hsieh 謝珮琪 |
指導教授: | 陳明通 |
關鍵字: | 連勝文,柯文哲,統獨立場,2014台北市長選舉,兩岸關係,政黨偏好, Lien Sheng-wen,Ko Wen-Je,issue of unification vs. independence,Taipei Mayoral election,Cross-Strait Relations,party preference, |
出版年 : | 2018 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 統獨是臺灣社會最主要的政治分歧之一, 2014年11月29日的臺北市長選舉中,無黨籍候選人柯文哲與國民黨候選人連勝文的統獨立場成為選舉焦點。本論文問題意識為,選民是如何對兩位候選人的統獨立場下判斷?影響其下判斷的重要變數為何?什麼樣的人傾向判斷連是統派或柯是獨派?
研究方法首先進行連勝文及柯文哲的統獨印象分析,採用文獻分析法,由候選人的政黨、家庭背景、政治經歷,競選期間的行為、發言,分析為何選民會對他下這樣的統獨立場判斷?第二則採用量化研究方法,使用政大選舉研究中心所主持的「臺灣選舉與民主化調查」(TEDS)2014年九合一選舉面訪案,以「二元勝算對數模型」,找出形成民眾對連與柯的統獨印象的主要因素為何? 研究結果發現,在連勝文的統獨立場判斷上,政黨偏好是影響的關鍵因素,泛綠政黨偏好者更認為連勝文偏向統派; 在柯文哲的統獨立場判斷上,統獨立場是影響的關鍵因素,主張儘快獨立者比其他類別更認為柯文哲傾向獨派。 Issue of unification vs. independence is one of the most important political differences in Taiwanese society. In the Taipei Mayor election on November 29, 2014, the non-party candidate Ko Wen-Je and the Kuomintang candidate Lien Sheng-wen’s standpoint of unification or independence became the focus of the election. The problem awareness of this essay is: “How do voters judge two candidates’ standpoint of unification or independence?” “What are the important variables that affect the judgment?” “What kind of person tends to judge Lien is pro-unification or Ko is pro-independence?” About the research method, firstly analyze the impression of Lien Sheng-wen and Ko Wen-Je’s standpoint of unification or independence, using document analysis to sort out candidate's political party, family background, political experience, behavior during the campaign, analyzing why voters judged them in such standpoint. Secondly, analyze by quantitative research method, using Election Study Center National Chengchi University’s “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study”, finding main factors that identifies people’s impression of Lien and Ko’s standpoint of unification or independence by “logit models”. The results show that, party preferences are the key factors influencing the judgment of Lien’s standpoint. Pan-Green Coalition are more inclined to think Lien is pro-unification. And, people’s s standpoint of unification or independence are the key factors influencing the judgment of Ko’s standpoint. The one who advocates “independent as soon as possible” inclined to think Ko is pro- independence than each other categories. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/73073 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201901394 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
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