臺灣結球萵苣出口目標市場之影響因子分析

Abstract

面對天災等不確定的大環境因素，農產品價格的波動性在臺灣益發明顯，讓生產業者經常暴露在高風險的困境。過去臺灣的農產品出口產業發展研究多半著重在強化生產管理面，有鑒於近年來台灣冬季裡作出口日本量之占比雖迅速成長，但也面對高度價格風險之狀況，本研究以結球萵苣出口為例，從目標市場的角度來分析此產業的出口動向與決定因子。分析方法以臺灣結球萵苣出口日本的數量為觀察對象，蒐集日本東京中央拍賣市場結球萵苣的逐月拍賣數量與價格資料，並加上日本結球萵苣冬季主要產區(茨城縣、靜岡縣、兵庫縣及香川縣)的月別氣候資料，包括溫度、日照及降雨量，進行迴歸分析，找出影響台灣出口至日本市場的主要因子。因臺灣主要出口季節為每年11月份至隔年的4月，本文資料蒐集之範圍自2005年1月至2019年3月，共計有88個月的觀察值。 迴歸分析結果顯示，日本東京中央拍賣市場結球萵苣拍賣價格與臺灣出口量呈顯著正相關，與預期一致，而位於關東地區產地茨城縣古河市與靜岡縣菊川市的溫度變化與臺灣出口量亦有顯著相關，位於關西地區產地兵庫縣南淡路島之降雨量、溫度及日照及四國地區產地香川縣東香川市之降雨量、溫度等也均對台灣出口日本之數量有顯著的影響力。這些結果顯示台灣冬季裡作蔬菜的出口除了必須考量目標市場的價格因素外，也要同步了解目標市場產地的氣候狀況，俾利作出最佳的市場動向分析，適時調整裡作的種植面積與供應量，維持出口競爭力於不敗之地。

Facing the uncertain environmental factors such as natural disasters, the volatile agricultural product prices has become apparent in Taiwan, which causes producers often exposed to high-risk dilemmas. In the past, most of the agricultural export studies in Taiwan focused on strengthening the management of production. In view of the rapid growth of Taiwan’s export of winter vegetables and the increasing exposure to price risk, this study aims to analyze the vegetable export determinants from the perspective of the target market. The analysis is based on the volumes of Taiwanese iceberg lettuce exported to Japan, the monthly auction quantities and price information in the central auction market in Tokyo, and the production data of Japanese winter lettuce in the main producing areas (Ibaraki, Shizuoka, Hyogo and Kagawa). The monthly weather data at the county level in Japan, including temperature, solar radiation and rainfall, are collected as explanatory variables of the regression analysis to identify the main factors affecting Taiwan's exports to the Japanese market. Since Taiwan's main export season is from November to the following April, the data collected ranges from January 2005 to March 2019, with a total of 88 months of observation. The results of the regression analysis showed that the auction price of the iceberg lettuce in the Tokyo Central Auction Market was positively correlated with the export volume of Taiwan as expected. The temperature in the Koga City of Ibaraki Prefecture and the Kikukawa City in Shizuoka Prefecture; the rainfall, temperature and sunshine hours of the Minamiawaji in Hyogo Prefecture; and the rainfall and temperature of the Higashikagawashi City in Kagawa Prefecture are all found to be the significant determinants of the Taiwanese lettuce exports to Japan. These results show that in addition to the price factor of the target market, the export-oriented producers of winter vegetables in Taiwan must also keep abreast of the climate conditions of the target market. Factoring in the weather conditions will be necessary to make the best market trend analysis and to adjust the production acreage and supply in a timely manner. This implies that Taiwanese farmers need to enhance their knowledge on weather information to maintain their export competitiveness in an invincible position.