租稅對經濟成長的非線性關係:以OECD國家為例

Abstract

本文應用1980年至2014年間26個OECD會員國的樣本資料，以迴歸分析特別是應用廣義加成模型(generalized additive model)檢視公司所得稅率與經濟成長率間是否存在非線性關係；同時探討研發投資抵減與經濟成長率之間是否有顯著關係。基於實證估計結果，本文認為一國公司所得稅率與經濟成長率應存在非線性關係：不同公司所得稅率時，其與經濟成長率之統計關係將不同。但在某些公司所得稅率水準下，增加公司所得稅率具有顯著正向成長效果，這與Jaimovich & Rebelo (2017)之推論不同，該文預期增加所得稅率恆有負向的成長效果。另一方面，研發投資抵減政策尤其是資本類支出的稅額抵減與經濟成長率之間亦存在顯著關係，本文的迴歸模型實證結果顯示其他條件不變下，前一期的資本類研發稅價變動與經濟成長率間存在顯著的負向關係。

Based on a panel data set of 26 OECD countries from 1980 to 2014, this paper used regression analysis especially generalized additive model to examine whether there is a nonlinear relationship between corporate income tax rate and economic growth rate and whether R&D tax credit has positive growth effect. According to the estimation result, this paper concluded that corporate income tax rate has nonlinear growth impact, that is, the marginal effect of changing tax rate differs for different tax rate. Furthermore, corporate income tax rate and economic growth rate are positive correlated when tax rate is moderately low. On the other hand, R&D tax credit also has significant growth impact.