DR-CAFTA 對瓜地馬拉主要作物產業之衝擊

Abstract

瓜地馬拉座落於中美洲，並且世界最大消費市場美國亦座落在同一個大陸上。藉由得天獨厚的地理環境，瓜地馬拉獲得了許多的優勢並面對著挑戰，美國為瓜地馬拉之最大貿易夥伴。在2016年時，糖、香蕉以及咖啡等三種主要產品占了瓜地馬拉約22%的出口值，其中的31%出口是美國，26%銷售到中美洲，9.4%銷售至歐盟，12.3%銷售至亞洲，4.4%銷售到墨西哥，3.3%銷售至加勒比海地區，2.5%銷售至南美洲。目前瓜地馬拉與五個國家及地區簽署了自由貿易協定，其中中美洲自由貿易協定為最重要的一個協定。 中美洲自由貿易協定的成員國包含：美國、哥斯大黎加、多明尼加、薩爾瓦多、宏都拉斯以及尼加拉瓜。美國國會已於2005年7月批准該項協定並且於同年的8月2日正式生效。本研究透過拉格朗日多項式插值的方式搜集了瓜地馬拉中央銀行於2002至2016年間的資料並且本研究透過這些資料來分析中美洲自由貿易協定對於瓜地馬拉糖、香蕉以及咖啡之貿易的影響。

Guatemala is located in Central America and in the same continent as the world's largest market, USA. Having a privileged geographic location, it comes with challenges and benefitts. The United States is Guatemala's primary trading partner in both imports and exports. Just for 2016 the three-major commodities sugar, banana, and coffee counted 22% of total export. Guatemala's export market destinations are as follow 31% goes to the United States of America, 26% to Central America, 9.4% to the European Union (EU), 12.3% goes to Asia, 4.4% goes to Mexico, 3.3% to the Caribbean, and 2.5% to South America. Guatemala has ve Free Trade Agreements with foreign countries, in which DR-CAFTA is the most important one. The DR-CAFTA included the following countries: the United States, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The U.S. Congress approved the CAFTA-DR in July 2005, and it was signed it into law on August 2, 2005. A Lagrange polynomials interpolation and the data collected by Banco central de Guatemala (Central Bank) from 2002 until 2016 will be analyzed in this research to evaluate the impact of DR-CAFTA on the major commodities, sugar, banana and coffee in Guatemala.