新興強權跟支配性強權之間的戰爭與資源取得之關係

Abstract

1978年鄧小平提出改革開放之後，中國實現經濟高速成長，中國與二戰後主導國際秩序之美國間國家實力差距逐漸縮小。近年來，中國在其國家實力接近美國的過程中是否要求既存秩序的修正，或者是否以武力挑戰美國等問題受到廣泛關注。本論文在未來中國與美國間的戰爭能否避免或如何避免之問題意識下，將美中關係視為支配性強權與新興強權間的關係，關注資源取得在國家間戰爭的爆發過程中的重要性，並探討新興強權是否為了資源取得而挑戰支配性強權。 為了回答此研究問題，本論文以二戰前後日美關係及當代美中關係為例分析新興強權有無誘因為了資源取得而挑戰支配性強權和戰爭發生與否間的關係。本論文設計新興強權的境內資源無法滿足其需求、新興強權的資源取得被支配性強權控制以及新興強權挑戰支配性強權之利益高於維持現狀之三個條件，並認為若新興強權滿足此三條件，新興強權就有誘因為了資源取得而挑戰支配性強權，反之亦然。本論文透過三個案例的分析發現，1941年向美國開戰之日本滿足上述三條件，挑戰美國前陷入經濟衰落時期的二戰後日本及尚未以武力挑戰美國之當代中國則沒有滿足三條件中的第三個條件。這三個案例中，有誘因挑戰的前一個案例以爆發戰爭為尾聲，沒有誘因挑戰的後兩個案例則沒有導致戰爭，這與本論文預測一致。 以上本論文分析結果顯示，新興強權有無誘因為了資源取得而挑戰支配性強權和戰爭發生與否間不存在矛盾。此外，本論文闡明，資源取得不僅在國家間戰爭發生過程中扮演重要角色，也會成為新興強權與支配性強權間的戰爭發生之原因。

After Deng Xiaoping proposed “reform and opening up” policy in 1978, China started rapid economic growth, resulted in narrowing the gap between the national power of China and the United States, which dominated international order after World War II. In recent years, whether China will request a revision of the existing order, or whether to use force to challenge the US in the process of China’s national strength close to the United States, received extensive attention. Under the consciousness of whether the war between China and the United States can be avoided or how to avoid it in the future, this thesis regards the US-China relations as the relationship between the dominant power and the rising power, and pays attention to the importance of resources in the process of the outbreak of war between countries and discuss whether rising powers challenge the dominant power for resource acquisition. In order to answer this research question, this thesis takes the Japan-US relations before and after the Second World War and the contemporary US-China relation as an example to analyze the correlation between whether there is an incentive for the rising powers to challenge the dominant power for resource acquisition and the occurrence of war. This thesis designs three conditions including the domestic resources of the rising power cannot meet her needs, the resources acquisition of the rising power are controlled by the dominant power and the interests of the rising power to challenge the dominant power are higher than maintaining the status quo, and argues that if the rising power satisfies these three conditions, the rising power will be tempted to challenge the dominant power for resource acuisition, and vice versa. Through the analysis of three cases, this thesis finds that Japan, which fought in the United States in 1941, satisfies the above three conditions, and also find that Japan, which fell into economic decline without challenging the United States in the early 1990’s and the contemporary China that has not yet challenged the United States by force, did not meet the third condition. In the three cases, the previous case with the rising power’s incentive to challenge the dominant power resulted in war, and the last two cases without the rising power’s incentive to challenge the dominant power did not lead to the war. This is consistent with the argument in this thesis. The results of the above analisys show that there is no contradiction between whther the rising power has the incentive to challenge the dominant power for resource acquisiton and the occurrence of war. In addition, this thesis clarifies that resource acquisition not only plays an important role in the process of outbreak of inter-state wars, but also becomes the cause of the war between rising powers and the dominant power.