台灣稻穀價格之研究-大數據之應用

Abstract

本研究選取稻穀為研究主題並應用大數據的資料探索方法探討台灣稻榖價格隱含的訊息，其目的是(1)藉著大數據資料探索稻穀價格的各項機率分布，從而找出台灣稻穀價格的領先地區和落後地區；(2)探討稻穀帄均價格之高、中及低價位之分布；(3)探討不同節氣的稻榖價格變動及各地區在不同節氣下的稻榖價格變動；(4)探討各地區稻榖價格的群聚關係。 資料範圍是從2012年1月1日至2017年12月31日，共有2,190天，15個地區別，原始資料筆數為32,850筆。所得結論是價格不變的天數占全部天數的43.91%，價格下跌的天數和上漲的天數分別占全部天數的28.78%和27.31%。全年價格不變的最高機率是二月份，全年稻穀價格下跌機率最高的是五月份，全年稻穀價格上漲機率最高的是十一月份。各月別稻穀帄均價格變動標準差顯示一月分為全年稻穀價格最穩定的月別。七月份是全年中變化最大的月別。 稻穀帄均價格之價位分布，北部地區全年皆落在中價位和低價位水準，中部地區除台中市外，大部分的縣市是落在高價位和中價位水準，南部地區的情況與北部地區類似，東部地區除宜蘭縣外，全年皆位於高價位和中價位水準。台東縣全年稻穀價格皆位於高價位水準，但桃園市、新竹縣、苗栗縣、台中市、高雄市和宜蘭縣皆未曾出現高價位水準。 由節氣分析，整個春季的稻穀帄均價格除了高雄市和宜蘭縣為低價位外，其餘各地區均落在高價位和中價位水準。夏季和秋季除南投縣、台東縣和花蓮縣仍然維持春季的價位水準外，其餘各縣市均落在中價位和低價位水準。冬季除了立冬和小雪有些地區出現低價位外，其餘各縣市均落在中價位和高價位水準。 由集群分析顯示台東縣和花蓮縣分屬最高和次高稻穀價格群。雲林縣、南投縣、彰化縣、屏東縣、嘉義市、嘉義縣、台南市為中價位群，其中雲林縣和南投縣為中價位群之最高者，嘉義市、嘉義縣和台南市是中價位群的最低者。新竹縣、苗栗縣、台中市為低價位群的最高者，桃園市、高雄市是低價位群的最低者。

This study chose paddy as the research topic and applied data exploration methods of big data to explore the hidden information of paddy price in Taiwan. The purpose was to (1) explore the probability distribution of paddy price by using data explore of big data to find out the leading and lagging areas of paddy price in Taiwan; (2) explore the distribution of high, mid, and low levels of the average price of paddy; (3) explore the variations of paddy price in different solar terms and the variations of paddy price at various regions with different solar terms; (4) explore the clustering patterns of paddy price in various regions. The data period is from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2017. It covers 2,190 days and 15 different areas. Total number of original data is 32,850. The research results showed that the price-invariant days accounted for 43.91% of the total number of days, and the days of price falling and increasing accounted for 28.78% and 27.31% of the total days, respectively. The highest probability of price-invariant throughout the year was in February. The highest probability of paddy price falling in the whole year was in May. The highest probability of paddy price increasing in the whole year was in November. The standard deviation of the average price of paddy in each month indicated that January was the most stable month for paddy price throughout the year. July was the month of greatest variation in the year. The price-level distribution of the average price of paddy in the northern region falls at mid-price level and low-price level throughout the year. In the central region except Taichung City, most of the counties and cities are at high-price and mid-price level. In the southern region is similar to the northern region. In the eastern region except for Yilan County, it is located at high-price and mid-price level throughout the year. The annual price of paddy in Taitung County is located at the high-price level, but there are no high-price level in Taoyuan City, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Taichung City, Kaohsiung City, and Yilan County. From the solar terms analysis, except for Kaohsiung City and Yilan County which are low-price, the average price of paddy in the entire spring season falls at the high-price and mid-price level. In summer and autumn, other than Nantou County, Taitung County, and Hualien County kept the price level in the spring, all other counties and cities decreased to the mid-price and low-price level. During the winter season, except some areas indicated low price in the beginning of winter and small-snow period, all other counties and cities were located in mid-price and high-price level. Cluster analysis shows that Taitung County and Hualien County belong to the highest and second highest price group of paddy, respectively. Yunlin County, Nantou County, Changhua County, Pingtung County, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, and Tainan City are mid-price group, of which Yunlin County and Nantou County being the highest among the mid-price group, Chiayi City, Chiayi County, and Tainan City being the lowest of this group. Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, and Taichung City are the highest of the low-price group, and Taoyuan City and Kaohsiung City are the lowest of the low-price group. Keywords：Price of