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標題: | 電子商務對貿易的影響:來自中國各省級行政區的實證研究 The Impact of E-commerce on Trade between Trade Partners and Different Provinces in China |
作者: | Zhan-Kun Yeh 葉展焜 |
指導教授: | 羅竹平(Chu-Ping Lo) |
關鍵字: | 電子商務,重力模型,中國各省級行政區,雙邊貿易, E-commerce,Gravity model,Provinces in China,Bilateral trade, |
出版年 : | 2018 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本研究提供電子商務對雙邊貿易額的實證研究,選取近年來電子商務快速發展的中國大陸各省級行政區作為研究對象,較能捕捉到電子商務的成長對雙邊貿易的影響,資料區間為2014年到2016年,過往的研究分析該項議題時,都是以網民人數、網路滲透率、網路虛擬主機數(internet host)當作電子商務的代理變數,較不能完整的解釋電子商務對國際貿易的影響,因此本研究首次使用三項電子商務的代理變數,分別為:電子商務規模指數、滲透指數、支撐環境指數,從三個面向來分析中國大陸各省級行政區的電子商務發展和其貿易夥伴的雙邊貿易額影響。
實證結果顯示,電子商務規模指數的迴歸係數為0.289,當各省的電子商務規模每增加1%,對雙邊貿易額會增加0.289%;電子商務渗透指數的迴歸係數為0.345,各省的電子商務滲透程度每增加1%,對雙邊貿易額會增加0.345%;電子商務的支撐環境指數的迴歸係數為0.536,各省的電子商務支撐環境(物流、基礎設施、人力資本)每增加1%,對雙邊貿易額會增加0.536%,從結果來說電子商務對於雙邊貿易額確實有正向的影響,並可以推測當東南亞國家和非洲國家的電子商務發展成熟後,對於全球的國際貿易會有更大的成長。 Electronic commerce can induce the international trade. The purpose of this paper is to investigate that how the e-commerce influences the bilateral trade between difference provinces in China and its trade partners. The gravity model is developed and estimated which using data from 2014 to 2016 for difference provinces in China. Previous research analyzes the impact of e-commerce on bilateral trade which usually take internet users, internet penetration rate, internet host as a proxy variable for e-commerce. But these proxy variables cannot completely explain the e-commerce. Hence, this paper first demonstrates that e-commerce scale index, e-commerce penetration index, e-commerce support index as proxy variables to analyze the impact of e-commerce on bilateral trade between different provinces in China and its trade partners. The results empirically support the connection between e-commerce and international trade. The e-commerce scale index elasticity estimated is 0.289. The e-commerce penetration index elasticity estimated is 0.345. The e-commerce support index elasticity estimated is 0.536. The results show that e-commerce really has a positive effect on different provinces’ international trade in China. Moreover, the e-commerce in Southeast Asia and Africa is just beginning. When the e-commerce of these regions gets well-developed, we can infer that the international trade scale will become bigger. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/69147 |
DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201801672 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 農業經濟學系 |
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