都市交通運具移轉模式及效益評估—以臺北市自行車與機車為例

Abstract

世界各國都市化現象導致人口高密度集中，過度使用私人運具，特別是機車和汽車造成擁堵、空氣污染、車禍事故，不僅危害人體健康也同時影響能源耗用、生活型態和環境品質，因此為了都市交通永續發展，在運具類型、道路規劃、基礎建設上必須重新檢視與思考之。 本研究建立運具移轉效益評估方法，由Agent-Based Model (ABM)為建構模式基礎模擬其運具移轉行為；在都市的空間尺度之下，透過移轉成本（switching csot）作為誘因並以旅行成本和旅行時間作為影響參數，以臺北市作為研究邊界，對象為機車移轉至使用自行車。在模擬條件：以100位個體（agents）而言，為臺北市機車、自行車市占率設定初始值，機車83輛、自行車17輛；移轉成本為時間價值乘上騎乘距離，其中時間價值設定上下限並依個體變化。模擬結果有二：其一機車減至80輛，自行車增至20輛，移轉率為3.6％；其二為機車減至79輛，自行車增至21輛，移轉率為4.8％，移轉成本皆為3,348元，其平均時間價值為3.03元／分鐘。 以臺北市機車登記數953,120輛和年平均騎乘距離3,120公里計算，移轉率3.6%，投入移轉成本為664,400,426元，相較可減少之環境污染成本為12,238,701,883元與人體健康損害成本為132,812,342元；移轉率4.8%，投入移轉成本為885,854,315元，相較可減少之環境污染成本為16,318,031,184元與人體健康損害成本為177,080,540元。相較其值，投入移轉成本僅為環境污染成本與人體健康損害成本之不到一半。總結前述，運具移轉由機車至自行車為產生正向效應，未來可提供後續相關研究者使用或政府機關政策之參考。

Nowadays, the phenomenon of urbanization in the world leads to a high concentration of population, and excessive use of private transports, especially congestion and air pollution caused by motorcycles and cars. It’s not only endangering human health, but affecting energy consumption, lifestyles and the environmental quality. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable development in urban transport, route planning should be rethought. This study focused on setting up a transport switching model to simulate transport behavior, which is based on an Agent-based model (ABM). Furthermore, evaluated the benefits including human health, air quality, resources and energy consumption with lifecycle thinking. Under the city scale, through considering the travel time and travel cost as the influencing parameters, and switching cost is for incentive to the transport mechanism, and motorcycles and bicycles as transfer objects. In the case of 100 agents, the initial occupancy of number between motorcycles and bicycles, which are 83 motorcycles and 17 bicycles in Taipei. The switching cost depends on the value of time(VOT), multiplied by the riding distance. The simulation results are two: The first one, the switching rate is 3.6%, which means motorcycles is reduced to 80, the number of bicycles is increased to 20.Based on the data of motorcycles' average riding distance 3,120km we can calculate the switching cost is NTD664,400,426,and compared can be reduced the cost of environmental pollution is NTD12,238,701,883, the cost of human health damage is NTD132,812,342.The second one, the switching rate is 4.8%, which means motorcycles is reduced to 79, the number of bicycles is increased to 21. We also can calculate the switching cost is NTD885,854,315, and compared can be reduced the cost of environmental pollution is NTD16,318,031,184, the cost of human health damage is NTD177,080,540. Apparently, the value of switching cost is only less than half the cost of environmental pollution and human health damage, then slow down the consumption of limited resources, Overall, there will be positive and effective achievements by using switching cost, which helps shift motorcyclists to bicyclists, and this study can be provided for follow-up researches or government policies.