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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 馬鴻文 | |
dc.contributor.author | Yi-Shin Wang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 王怡心 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-17T02:12:39Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-01-04 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2018-01-04 | |
dc.date.issued | 2017 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2017-12-22 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Agriculture and Food Agency (AFA), Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, R.O.C report. (2010)
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/68100 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 在環境管理研究工具中的物質流分析方法(Material flow analysis, MFA)為其中一種用來進行程序分析、計算與評估的工具之一。其優勢為可以將一個議題中的標的物質的流動程序分析與分析物質流動在該區域的系統架構並且將結果量化,而後可針對最重要的程序更進一步探討與搭配更多的相關工具分析,然後提出建議或政策,故物質流分析方法為一在環境議題評估中應用相當廣泛的分析方法。然而物質流分析方法逐漸在環境管理分析方法上被廣泛使用的同時,其不確定性卻可能隨著盤查的方式、計算方式、資料品質、資料來源、使用模式與研究假設等不同而影響分析結果。例如:因為資料來源的誤差,研究者使用資料時也沒有選擇較為合適的數據,勢必影響最終結果。另外因為資料來源的不足,可能部份流程的數據會用推估的方式,其推估依據是否恰當也是影響結果的原因之一。如此多種的不確定性堆疊相互影響的結果,可見對於最終的結果影響甚鉅,也因此對於後續環境管理決策必定會有影響,而可能導致產生錯誤的決策。然而物質流分析之不確定性相對於其他環境管理的分析評估工具卻鮮少被討論。在環境管理領域範疇越來越大,物質流分析工具頻繁被使用,作為分析物質流佈找出熱區進而作為管理策略參考的情況下,此工具的不確定性應該更進一步深究。
另一方面,台灣地區物質管理為隨著環境管理領域延伸發展,但物質與資源管理並非全因污染問題產生。問題產生原因可能因為是資源需求、物質缺乏而需要思考如何提升物質使用效率,進而管理物質使用程序,因此應有必要建立台灣地區的物質管理程序,也將資源管理考量的內涵深入探討。 本論文透過不同物質進行物質流分析,且依照不同不確定性分析方法分析結果後,接下來反饋目前物質流分析方法程序調整建議。最後回到物質、環境管理的策略程序擬定與給予研究區域中部分資源的策略管理建議。因此主要的研究創新與貢獻有:1.以量化方式討論物質流不確定性方法,供未來物質流不確定性研究參考。2.提供更縝密的物質流分析方法流程。3.建立資源與物質管理研究流程與方法。4.彙整台灣或是台北地區氮、磷、水泥、銅與鉛資源管理策略。 本論文研究結果分為兩大部分呈現,一部分為方法學探討為主的物質流不確定性分析,另一部分是環境管理應用面部分的物質管理策略探討。首先在物質流不確定性方法學部分在兩種不確定性方法的比較中,本研究深入探討各種物質和因素的不確定性範圍之間的關係,發現使用Hedbrant and Sӧrme (HS) method 不確定分析方法所得的不確定範圍與蒙地卡羅不確定性分析方法不一致。這些結果在用於政策擬定時應更加仔細斟酌。如果有足夠的數據記錄,蒙地卡羅模擬是比不確定性分析的HS不確定性方法更好的選擇。雖然,蒙地卡羅不確定性分析方法是分析MFA不確定性的推薦方法。雖然HS不確定性方法也用於分析MFA不確定性範圍,但結果可能會有問題。當數據量不足以用於蒙地卡羅不確定分析方法時,又非為該物質的敏感性因子,可以使用HS不確定分析方法來分析MFA不確定性範圍。 本研究也相應將每一個有討論的物質,在經過台北市物質流分析後,再彙整台灣或是國外文獻,在物質管理政策策略面給予貢獻。貢獻分為兩個部分,一個部分為建立物質管理策略流程,另一部分為系統化地將本研究所探討的物質-磷、氮、水泥、銅與鉛的物質管理策略給予建議。因此,本研究根據各物質使用的生命週期搭配物質的使用程序(地點),再以短、中、長程的計畫為例說明可能的管理熱點與方式。然而,在決策過程中,應該也將管理目標物質可能影響其他物質或是能源使用的部分也納入考量,如此才可將決策所帶來的負面衝擊降低。本研究在物質策略擬定上,也以不同的角度與目標為例,說明管理策略著重的差異。希望透過本研究建立的系統化策略管理流程,以水泥為案例,佐以三種管理策略為範例,以量化的方式說明有沒有執行不確定性分析以及使用不同種不確定性分析方法,將影響決策改變,這些結果可作為未來擬定物質管理策略的依據與參考。 綜合上面兩個層面的研究成果,本論文從物質流分析應用於物質與環境的策略管理從方法學切入,延伸至應用面為範例探討,不僅在方法學可供未來物質流研究相關學者建議之外,於五個物質的管理方向、管理策略擬定及策略執行流程也給予建議。而這些物質管理、策略擬定程序,也可提供未來其他物質管理的流程參考。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Material flow analysis (MFA) is a one of the methods that depict and assess the flows and stocks of materials in the anthroposphere and the environment for sustainable environmental management. However, MFA results may contain uncertainties arising from the investigation method, calculation processes, data quality, data sources, or research assumptions. Uncertainty has already become an important consideration in material management; for example, Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) has prompted research discussions related to the uncertainty in databases, investigative periods and characteristic factors. Thus, the uncertainty in the MFA is increasingly important to policy makers coping with resources management issues. However, few studies have addressed the uncertainty in the MFA. Moreover, material management issues are not limited to pollution problems that gain much attention from environmental management fields in recent year. The material management stress may come from low resource use efficiency or huge resource consumption. Thus, it is necessary to establish the procedure of combining material management and policy instituted process for strategy-making on environmental management.
This research contains two main objectives. The first objective is to perform uncertainty analysis on the data sets of different materials in the MFA by using two important uncertainty analysis methods, i.e. the Hedbrant and Sӧrme (HS) method and the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method, and the analytical results of the two methods are compared. The second objective is to explore materials management strategies for providing suggestions on sustainable environmental management, in which the procedure of combining material management with policy instituted process is established and an integrated material management policy of phosphorus, nitrogen, copper, cement and lead is made. The research results are presented in two parts: the comparative results of the two uncertainty methods implemented in the MFA methodology; and the suggestions on material management policy. The uncertainty analysis results of the HS method and the MC simulation show that uncertainty range and likely values of flow data can vary considerably. After analyzing the relationship among the uncertainty range, flow data and likely values, which can be derived from the comparisons among the calculation processes of each method, the results of uncertainty analyses show that the HS method may greatly deviate from those of the MC simulation. Under this scenario, the MC simulation needs to analyze the uncertainty in the MFA, although it requires great efforts. For understanding the uncertainty range more precisely, it is suggested to identify the sensitive factor or flow based on uncertainty results. The results of material management policy indicate that the policy instituted process can also be presented right after the procedure of material management is established. This research adopts the concept of LCA to present the material management policy in every process. Furthermore, this research suggests that these management strategies should be divided into short-, medium- and long-term ones for the purpose of easier implementation. Finally, this research also adopts cement as a case study to compare the policy-decision results by quantifying the uncertainty range of its material flow. The results indicate that policy decisions can be made more adequately when both uncertainty range and likely values are considered. This research not only discusses uncertainty issues in the material flow analysis field but also extends the research area to resources management issues. The research results provide new insights and recommendations for further studies on material flow analysis, environmental management and resources management. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-17T02:12:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-106-D99541006-1.pdf: 5892622 bytes, checksum: 1ba33049e1439ea307895fa86e4627e4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄
口試委員會審訂書 I 致謝 II 中文摘要 IV ABSTRACT VII 第一章 前言 1 1.1研究緣起 1 1.2研究目的 3 1.3主要創新與貢獻 4 1.4研究流程架構與論文架構 6 第二章 文獻回顧 9 2.1物質流相關 9 2.1.1物質流分析方法簡介 9 2.1.2物質流分析方法流程與不確定性產生原因 12 2.1.3不確定性分析方法種類 15 2.1.4不確定性分析方法及工具應用於物質流相關研究 19 2.2本研究使用物質文獻 28 2.2.1氮 28 2.2.2磷 28 2.2.3水泥 28 2.2.4銅 28 2.2.5鉛 29 三、研究方法 30 3.1方法論研究架構項目 30 3.1.1不確定性方法論研究架構 30 3.1.2應用面研究架構與面向 33 3.1.3系統架構簡介 34 3.2物質管理研究方法 41 3.2.1物質管理研究 41 3.2.2物質管理系統分析步驟 42 四. 研究結果 45 4.1不確定性分析結果 45 4.1.1蒙地卡羅分析結果 45 4.1.2 HS分析方法分析結果 48 4.1.3以氮、鉛為例比較兩種不確定分析方法結果 50 4.1.4比較平衡後存量的結果(Stock) 55 4.1.5小結 56 4.2物質流分析流程納入不確定性調整 58 4.3物質管理策略 61 4.3.1磷 66 4.3.2氮 74 4.2.3水泥 81 4.3.4銅 101 4.3.5鉛 109 4.3.6納入物質流不確定性分析結果影響決策-以水泥為例 115 五、結論與建議 130 5.1結論 130 5.2建議 131 參考文獻 133 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 不確定性分析應用於物質流分析與管理研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | The research of uncertainty analysis methods for material flow analysis | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 106-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 博士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 李公哲,張慶源,闕蓓德,林逸彬,鄒倫 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 物質流分析,不確定性分析,氮資源管理,磷資源管理,銅資源管理,鉛資源管理,水泥資源管理, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Material flow analysis,uncertainty analysis,phosphorus resource management,nitrogen,copper,cement,lead, | en |
dc.relation.page | 138 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201704492 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2017-12-22 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 工學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 環境工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 環境工程學研究所 |
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