新型冠狀病毒對於臺灣、日本、法國空氣品質及糧食安全的影響

Abstract

2019新型冠狀病毒病為新興的人傳人傳染症。截至2020年5月31日，2019新型冠狀病毒病已經在全球造成六百多萬人死亡。疫情流行期間，各國政府採取各種防疫措施與封城政策來預防病毒的傳播，這些防疫措施與相關政策改變各國人民的生活型態。有證據顯示，中國大陸封城期間，二氧化氮的排放量下降30%。此外，民眾恐慌性購買與食品貨架遭搶購一空的情形在世界各國相繼出現。截至目前尚未有研究同時觀察2019新型冠狀病毒病對環境品質與糧食安全的影響。因此，本研究目的為調查2019新型冠狀病毒病對臺灣、日本、法國空氣品質與糧食安全的影響。 在空氣品質方面，本研究專注於二氧化氮與細懸浮微粒這兩樣空氣污染物。本研究分析的空氣品質資料來自全球空氣品質指數計畫（World Air Quality Index project）於空氣品質資料開放平台提供的2019新型冠狀病毒病資料庫。首先，我們利用泰爾森估算結果與2019年相對應月份的空氣污染物濃度預測2020年三月至五月二氧化氮與細懸浮微粒在台北、東京與巴黎的濃度。接者，計算2020年三月至五月兩項空氣污染物濃度預測值和實際值在這三座城市的百分比變化，最後比較三座城市二氧化氮與細懸浮微粒百分比變化量的差異。至於糧食安全，本研究專注於糧食價格在2019新型冠狀病毒病疫情前後的變化。2019新型冠狀病毒病疫情前後的糧食價格資料取自聯合國糧食及農業組織（FAO）。首先計算14種主要糧食與5大類食物在疫情前後糧食價格的百分比變化，接著計算各國價格上升的糧食種類數目與食物大類數目，最後比較臺灣、日本、法國在糧食種類與食物大類價格上升的數目差異。 整題而言，2019新型冠狀病毒病的流行嚴重度與封城的嚴格度，台北最輕微、日本次之、法國則最嚴重與嚴格。根據社區流動報告結果顯示，疫情嚴重或封城嚴格的地方在公共場合的人流有較大幅地減少，相反地，居住地的人流則相對增加。此外，根據本研究的分析，2019新型冠狀病毒病也有對臺灣、日本、法國的空氣品質與糧食安全造成影響。2020年三月至五月，二氧化氮濃度預測值與實際值之間，在台北呈現增加的趨勢，在東京與巴黎呈現下降的趨勢。另外，細懸浮微粒濃度預測值與實際值的百分比變化量在這三座城市均呈現下降的趨勢。至於糧食價格分析結果，價格上升的糧食種類與食物大類數目，法國最多、日本次之、台灣最少。根據本研究結果顯示，空氣品質的改善程度與糧食價格的增加和各國疫情嚴重程度與封城嚴格度有正向的關係。 關鍵字：2019新型冠狀病毒病 空氣品質 二氧化氮 細懸浮微粒 糧食安全 糧食 價格

2019 Coronavirus disease (Covid-19), a novel person-to-person infectious disease, has caused more than 6 million death worldwide until May 31, 2020. To prevent the disease from transmission, there were several measures and lockdown policy adopted by each government. Public health measures and lockdown policy imposed during Covid-19 change people’s lifestyle. In addition, there was evidence showing that NO2 emission declines by 30% during lockdown period in China. Panic buying of food and grocery occurred in many countries worldwide. However, no study has been done to look at how Covid-19 affect both environmental quality and food security yet. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on air quality and food security in Taiwan, Japan, and France. For the air quality, the study focused on nitrogen oxide (NO2), and particulate matter diameter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5). Air quality data source was from air quality open data platform – worldwide Covid-19 dataset provided by World Air Quality Index project. Pollutant concentration in 2020 was predicted by using the Theil-Sen estimates and pollutant concentration in the corresponding month in 2019. Then calculated the percentage change between predicted and actual value during March to May, 2020. Levels of percentage change in capital city of three countries were compared. For the food security, this study chose food price as an indicator. Food price data source was from Food and Agriculture of the United Nations (FAO). The price percentage change before and after Covid-19 of 14 main food products and 5 food groups was calculated. Then, the number of price increase items and food groups was compared between Taiwan, Japan, and France. Overall, Covid-19 severity and movement restriction were mild in Taiwan, moderate in Japan, and strictest in France. The country with higher Covid-19 severity and movement restriction had larger level of mobility index decline in public places, by contrast, increase in residence. Besides, the results revealed that Covid-19 pandemic did influence air quality and food price in Taiwan, Japan, and France. During March to May 2020, NO2 in Taipei had positive percentage change; NO2 in Tokyo and Paris had negative percentage change. As to PM2.5, it had negative percentage change in three countries. For the food price, the number of item or food group with positive price change was the most in France, follow by Japan, lastly by Taiwan. Therefore, this study concluded that levels of air quality improvement and food price increase were positively associated with the severity of outbreak severity and the strictness of lockdown policy. Key Words: Covid-19, air quality, NO2, PM2.5, food security, food price