民主化、新自由主義與貨幣政策：歷史角度下我國中央銀行維穩原則之研究

Abstract

本文透過歷史性分析，重新審視我國中央銀行維穩原則自威權至民主的發展脈絡。在國民政府統治大陸時期，中央銀行受迫於戰爭綿延，屢屢以增發貨幣因應戰時支出，由此衍發的惡性通膨導致國民政府丟失大陸政權。金融崩潰的陰影讓1949年遷台後的國民政府力求金融與經濟的穩定，在「穩定優先、發展次之」的最高原則之下，威權領導人賦予中央銀行相對於其他政府部門獨立之地位，雖然1979年央行改隸行政院，但在實質上仍享有實質自主的地位，不受行政或立法部門的制約。 自1980年代開始，國內政治民主化浪潮開始挑戰長期自主的中央銀行。隨著威權政體的統御力量逐漸消退，代之而起的是各種政治勢力對於金融權力的競逐，民主化帶來的負面影響讓央行遭遇到前所未有的挑戰。為了維繫自主性與維穩原則，我國中央銀行善用了國際新自由主義對於中央銀行「壓抑通膨」與「實踐獨立性」的教條作為抵抗其餘政治勢力的護身符；新自由主義的支持，成為我國央行在威權轉型期間實行獨立貨幣政策的正當性來源，延續了中央銀行的維穩原則，也讓臺灣在截然不同的政治情境下，能堅守穩定優先的貨幣政策，並未出現政治貨幣循環的現象。 本文認為，無論是在威權時代還是民主時代，我國央行的維穩原則均具有堅實的正當性來源：威權時代的維穩原則在政治強人的支持與保護下建立，民主轉型過程中的維穩原則則因國際上新自由主義的興起在經濟理論上給了維穩原則支持力量，使得民主化後的央行能免於政治貨幣循環，持續地走在穩定的道路上。

This study examines the conservativism of Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC). CBC’s conservativism was established, once challenged, and consolidated in different political environments. Established in 1924, CBC was mainly in charge of issuing currency to balance fiscal deficits caused by continuous wars. Serious hyperinflation caused by excessive money supply not only broke down the financial system but also endangered the ROC government’s power over Mainland China. After retreated to Taiwan in 1949, the ROC government underlined the importance of financial stability and empowered CBC the right to implement conservative monetary policy. Although the institutional arrangement was once challenged by the Legislative Yuan in 1979, CBC continuously enjoyed high independence throughout the authoritarian period. However, the wave of democratization since the 1980s increased the strength of the Legislature Yuan and threatened CBC’s autonomy over monetary policy. To ensure its conservativism, CBC highlighted the importance of “Central Bank Independence (CBI)” and “low inflation” proposed by Neoliberalism to resist the intrusion of other rising political powers. With the strong support of Neoliberalism, CBC maintained its monetary conservativism during democratization period and prevented Policial Monetary Cycle (PMC) from happening. It is concluded that Taiwan’s stable macroeconomic environment was assured by CBC’s conservativism.