利用耐久財商品業之資本結構調整值預測總體經濟、產業及個別企業績效

Abstract

本研究以資本結構調整作為指標，欲藉由對其之檢視了解耐久財經理人是否對總體經濟環境變化及產業趨勢具前瞻能力:能夠在經濟狀況復甦之前，主動增加負債；在經濟狀況轉衰之前主動減少負債，而能夠使得下一期個別產業之績效優於全耐久產業；個別企業之績效優於所屬之耐久財產業。本文選定耐久財產業，因該產業對於總體經濟變化較其他產業敏感。經理人在進行融資投資決策之前，頇對總體經濟變化有所掌握、能夠預測該產業之前景，俾便能積極調整負債對權益比率、進一步極大化公司價值和冺潤。本研究依產業特性將耐久財產業區分成上下游，結果顯示耐久財上游經理人具備研判總體經濟情勢及產業前景之能力，但沒有證據顯示下游經理人具備此種能力。

另外，實證結果發現在耐久財上游樣本中，財務槓桿的調整領先於公司及產業的資產報酬率增加。反之，下游樣本中無此現象。

This study adopts capital structure adjustment of durable goods firms as a leading indicator to overall economic environment as well as industry and individual company subsequent period rate of return on assets. The maintained hypothesis is that the outlooks of these managers of these firms are proactive and these managers increase (reduce) liabilities on foreseeing the boom (bust). This paper selects the durable goods industry, because the profits of firms within this industry are sensitive to the overall upcoming outside environment changes as compared with those in the other industries. Before making a financing decision, managers may need to master such changes. Specifically, this study divides the durable goods industry into upstream and downstream subsectors. The findings support the notion that in the upstream durable goods firms, managers have the ability to predict the overall economic trend as well as industry and individual firm prospects, while the downstream managers do not appear to have such capabilities. Moreover, the empirical results indicate that for the upstream subsector observations, the adjustment of firm financial leverage significantly leads the company's and industry's return on assets changes. Conversely, these tests yield insignificant results for downstream firms