影響槓桿收購結果因素之研究

Abstract

本文研究1986年至2010年間全球宣告槓桿收購（Leveraged buyout, LBO）之交易案，利用邏輯斯回歸（Logistic regression）分析，探討最終交易結果是否可以由被併公司的財務結構以及交易過程中的特定因素決定。實證結果發現，擁有較高融資額度或較低市價帳面價值比的被併公司或當專業收購者參與交易時，可顯著提升此槓桿收購成功的機率；若此槓桿收購涉及敵意併購，槓桿收購成功的機率顯著降低。 本研究亦檢驗了市場的預測能力，分析市場對於成功和失敗的槓桿收購是否存在顯著不同的看法。實證結果發現，成功和失敗的槓桿收購在宣告後均具有顯著的累積異常報酬，且市場能夠在宣告日一段時間後有效預測槓桿收購的結果將會是成功和失敗。

This study examines the relation between the final status of global leveraged buyouts (LBOs) and the characteristics of target firms and transactions from 1986 to 2010 by binary logistic regression analysis. The empirical results indicate that target firms with higher debt capacity and lower market-to-book-value ratio and involvement of LBO professional associations significantly enhance the probability of subsequent completion. A significantly negative relationship was also found between hostile takeover and the final completeness of LBOs. This study also examines the ability of the market in predicting the final status of LBOs. The results reveal that there are large significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns for target firms’ shareholders after the announcements and we find that capital markets have the ability to predict the final status of LBOs after one week from the announcements.