考量環境衝擊之台灣電力結構規劃

Abstract

本研究為求取對台灣環境損害最小的電力結構，在環境衝擊方面，利用生命週期評估統計電力供給造成之環境損害，再以De Novo規劃法針對現有系統進行重新規劃；政策方面，為探討綠色經濟投資及再生能源發展目標於環境面的影響，以情境分析建立未來電力結構規劃之藍圖；選取最佳情境進行敏感度分析找出影響環境的關鍵因子，以比例原則分配各年度電力開發目標，獲得未來最佳的電力結構開發途徑。 台灣之能源供應多數仰賴進口，經濟部能源局統計，2011年進口能源佔國內總供給的97.93％，為因應國家能源安全與不斷增加的能源需求，針對國內的電力結構進行規劃為當務之急；但回顧現有關於電力結構規劃的相關報告，基於政策需求，對於環境面的考量均止於二氧化碳排放，為更全面探討電力供給對環境的影響，本研究以De Novo規劃法整合各項環境損害，包含人體健康、生態損害、氣候變遷、資源耗用、水耗用。 在投入綠色經濟轉型與開放再生能源限制的情境中，可求得對於各環境損害最小的電力結構，比例為燃氣47.3%、核能14.3%、水庫式慣常水力13.8%、陸域風力8.7%、川流式慣常水力8.6%、太陽光電4.3%及離岸風力3.0%，其中再生能源佔比共38.4％；與原方案相比較，在環境損害方面人體健康減少了49％，生態損害47％，氣候變遷61％，資源耗用47％，水耗用0.2％，在此情境下，供電量與尖峰負載均符合原系統之設定，而能源安全也因為結構的多元化而大幅提升。

In order to determine the optimized electricity structure concerning environment, the impact was quantified by life cycle assessment in this research. The existed structure was reconsidered by De Novo programming. This study also establishes several scenarios to explore the policies of green economy investments and renewable energy development goals. Sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the key environmental impact factors and develop the pathways toward optimized electricity structure in future. According to the statistics of Bureau of Energy, 97.93% of the supply energy relied on import to Taiwan in 2011. Thus programming the electricity structure is very important to the security of energy and increasing electricity demand. In order to explore the environment impact of the electricity supply more comprehensive, we applied De Novo programming to integrate various damages, including human health, ecosystem, climate change, resource and water. In the scenario of investing green economy and releasing the restriction of renewable energy, the optimized electricity structure toward environment was obtained. The structure consists of 47.3% of advance gas-fired, 14.3% of nuclear power (advanced boiling water reactor), 13.8% of hydropower (reservoir), 8.7% of wind power (onshore), 8.6% of hydropower (run-of-the-river), 4.3% of solar power (photovoltaic), and 3% of wind power (offshore). Among these, renewable energy accounts for 38.4% of the total energy usage. Compared with the original program, the damage decreases 49% for human health, 47% for ecosystem, 61% for climate change, 47% for resource and 0.2% for water. In this scenario, both the electricity demand and the peak load conform to the requirement. The security of energy also improves because of the diversiform structure.