請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/64260
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 童慶斌(Ching-Pin Tung) | |
dc.contributor.author | Wan-Ya Wang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 王涴雅 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T17:37:25Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-03-03 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2020-03-03 | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2020-02-28 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 1.Arnold, J. G., S. L. Neitsch, J. R. Kiniry, and J. R. Williams (2009), “Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009”
2.C.W. RICHARDSON(1981), Stochastic Simulation of Daily Precipitation, Temperature, and Solar Radiation. 3.David Eckstein, Marie-Lena Hutfils, Maik Winges (2019), Germanwatch, Global Climate Risk Index 2019. 4.Emanuel,K.A.(2005),Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.Nature, 436, p686-p688. 5.Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Van Beek, E., & Van Deursen, W. P. (2012). Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change, 115(3-4), 795-819. 6.Hui-Wen Wu (2016), Application of SWAT Simulation Model to Predict Sediment and Runoff Yield at Laishe Creek Watershed. 7.J. Chen, F.P. Brissette, R. Leconte (2012), WeaGETS – a Matlab-based daily scale weather generator for generating precipitation and temperature. 8.Jykama, M.I. and Sykes, J.F. (2007). The Impact of Climate Change on Spatially Varying Groundwater Recharge in the Grand River Watershed, Journal of Hydrology, 338, 237-250. 9.Liu, S.C., Shiu, C.J., Chen, J.P., and Fu, C.B.(2008). Changes of precipitation intensity in East Asia.2008 Symposium of Climate Changes in Taiwan, Taipei. 10.Po-Yan Huang, Der-Her Lee, Hung-Ming Lin (2017) Investigating the Influence of Rainfall-Groundwater Relationship on the Slope Stability at Southern Taiwan. 11.Shiu,C.J.,Liu, S.C.,Chen, J.P.(2009),Durnally asymmetric trends of temperature,humidity,and precipitation in Taiwan.J.Climate,22,p5635–p5649. 12.S.L. Neitsch, J.G. Arnold, J.R. Kiniry, J.R. Williams Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory (2011), SWAT theoretical documentation version2009, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, Agricultural Research Service Blackland Research Center. 13.Soil and Water Assessment Tool, http://swat.tamu.edu/ (2015). 14.Tung, C. P., Tsao, J. H., Tien, Y. C., Lin, C. Y., & Jhong, B. C. (2019). Development of a novel climate adaptation algorithm for climate risk assessment. Water, 11(3), 497. 15.World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (2019), Global Climate in 2015-2019: Climate change accelerates. 16.曹榮軒.(2019).氣候調適演算法之發展與應用.臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學研究所學位論文. 17.科技部氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫TaiCCAT.(2015).氣候變遷調適行動建構指引. 18.經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所.(2012).強化北部水資源分區因應氣候變遷水資源管理調適能力研究. 19.林宗毅.(2019).發展氣候、水資源和糧食跨領域整合模式與結合氣候智慧調適演算法之應用-以桃園為例. 20.何謹余、童慶斌、王涴雅.(2019).減災與氣候變遷調適在區域治理上之融合研究-以坡地災害為例.農業工程學報.66(2). 21.中華民國107年新北市烏來區統計年報.(2019).新北市烏來區公所. 22.魏倫瑋、黃韋凱、黃春銘、李璟芳、林聖琪、紀宗吉. (2015). 蘇迪勒颱風於臺灣北部之山崩致災機制初探.中華水土保持學報,46(4),223-232. 23.鍾閔光、林俐玲.(2015).SWAT模式功能分析與探討-以來社溪集水區為例.國立中興大學水土保持學系碩士學位論文. 24.水土保持手冊(2005).行政院農業委員會水土保持局. 25.台9甲10.2K 大崩塌安全評估及後續整體調查規劃成果報告書(2016).青山工程顧問股份有限公司執行.行政院農業委員會水土保持局臺北分局編定. 26.氣候變遷對水環境之衝擊與調適研究洪水防護(含土砂管理)成果報告(2014).環興科技股份有限公司執行,經濟部水利署主辦. 27.林銘郎(2004).坡地災害之邊坡穩定機制研究. 28.彭思顯、陳樹群、劉紹臣、吳俊鋐、蔡義誌(2009).全球暖化下之水土保持策略.行政院農業委員會水土保持局. 29.李德河、曾國鈞、林宏明(2017).降雨引致地下水位變動對公路邊坡穩定影響之研究.國立成功大學土木工程學系碩士學位論文. 30.葉信富、陳進發、李振誥(2005).降雨入滲對坡地穩定影響之研究.中華水土保持學報 36 (2). 31.國家實驗研究院台灣颱風洪水研究中心(2017).結合系集降雨預報之坡面崩塌警戒模式開發. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/64260 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 由於氣候急遽變化,各地不斷有自然災害傳出,其中也包含損失慘重的坡地災害,尤其台灣因山坡地占地廣泛,相關災害更為頻繁,在眾多造成坡地不穩定的原因之中,主要以降雨與其補注之淺層飽和含水層水位為評估依據。
本研究以新北市南勢溪為例,參考科技部氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫(TaiCCAT)氣候調適六步驟,將步驟一至步驟四付諸執行,發展風險評估流程,以無限邊坡法計算安全係數,設定安全係數為1時為坡地滑動之臨界值,其所對應之淺層飽和含水層水位為門檻值,進行超越機率分析作為危害之指標,並考慮區域內暴露與敏感度,進行氣候變遷風險評估。未來風險評估方面包含產生未來氣象資料,以福山觀測站所得歷史降雨資料,比對大氣環流模式(General Circulation Models, GCMs)之最劣情境產生未來降雨,並以Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)模擬地下水文循環,以取得模擬之淺層飽和含水層水位。 研究結果顯示,區域範圍內上游的第五子集水區淺層飽和含水層水位最高,是為淺層坡地危害風險最高之區域,應為治理層級進行調適行動時應當優先考慮風險相對較高地區。根據風險地圖,未來氣候情境之下各子集水區風險等級確實有變劣的趨勢,坡地災害在氣候變遷之下確實受到威脅,若要降低損失,氣候調適行動勢必為重要對策。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | According to the climate is changing rapidly, natural disasters occur in various places continually, including hillslope disasters with heavy losses. Due to the extensive area of hillsides in Taiwan, related disasters happen more frequently recently. Among the many cause of slope instability, the rainfall and the water level of the shallow saturated aquifer are the mainly the basis for risk assessment in this study.
The research area is located at Nanshi River, New Taipei City. The main purpose of this study is to take Climate Smart Adaptation Algorithm (CSAA) which is developed by TaiCCAT and to develop the process of the risk assessment into practice. Infinite slope method for calculating the Factor of Safety (FS) is the way to set the threshold and undertake probability analysis as an indicator of hazard. When the Factor of Safety is set to 1, the corresponding shallow saturated aquifer water level is the threshold value. Risk assessment will be complete after combine the hazard, exposure and sensitivity in study area. In terms of hydrologic factors, the historical observation rainfall from Fushan station and the future data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) were the input datas to simulate the water level of the shallow saturated aquifer in the baseline and the future by operating the SWAT model. The water level of the shallow saturated aquifer in the fifth subbasin is the highest, and it is also the area with the highest hillslope disasters risk which should take some climate adaptation actions priorly. According to the result of the risk map, the risk level of each subbasin in the future is indeed deteriorating, so slope disasters are indeed threatened by climate change in this area. To reduce losses under the disasters, climate adaptation actions are bound to be significant actions. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T17:37:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-109-R06622039-1.pdf: 6217052 bytes, checksum: d82303c2b3989b3527638bf2b95833e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2020 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 謝誌 I
摘要 II Abstract III 第一章、緒論 1 1.1研究動機 1 1.2研究目的 3 1.3論文架構 3 第二章、文獻回顧 4 2.1氣候調適步驟 4 2.2氣候變遷下台灣坡地災害背景與案例 7 2.3氣候變遷對地下水影響 8 2.4地下水與坡地災害相關研究 9 第三章、研究方法與模式介紹 11 3.1氣候調適演算法介紹 12 3.1.1氣候調適演算法 12 3.2繁衍氣候資料 19 3.2.1GCMs挑選 20 3.2.2 GCMs資料降尺度 25 3.2.3氣象合成模式 26 3.3水文模擬 29 3.3.1 SWAT模式 29 3.4氣候變遷風險評估 35 3.4.1無限邊坡法 38 第四章、研究區域介紹與模式資料說明 40 4.1研究區域介紹 40 4.1氣象合成模式資料使用 44 4.2 SWAT模式輸入資料 44 4.4無限邊坡相關參數 48 4.5風險評估使用資料 49 第五章、研究結果與討論 51 5.1模式驗證 51 5.1.1氣象合成模式驗證 51 5.1.2 SWAT模式流量驗證 54 5.2氣象合成模式模擬結果 57 5.2氣候變遷風險評估 64 5.2.1風險模板 64 5.2.1危害要素結果分析 65 5.2.2氣候變遷風險分析 73 5.3界定調適選項 80 第六章、結論與建議 81 6.1結論 81 6.2建議 82 參考文獻 83 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 氣候變遷下降雨與淺層飽和層水位引致坡地災害之風險評估-以新北市南勢溪為例 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Risk Assessment of Hillslope Disaster Caused by Rainfall and Water Table of Shallow Aquifer under Climate Change
-A Case Study in Nanshi River, New Taipei City | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 108-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 廖國偉(Kuo-Wei Liao),李明旭(Ming-Hsu Li) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 坡地災害,氣候變遷風險評估,淺層飽和含水層水位,SWAT, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Hillslope Disaster,Climate Change Risk Assessment,Water Table of Shallow Aquifer,SWAT, | en |
dc.relation.page | 85 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201904303 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2020-02-29 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-109-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 6.07 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。