美國面對蘇聯與中國大陸挑戰的回應模式比較

Abstract

本研究探討美國面對蘇聯與中國大陸挑戰時，牽引其政策態度在和緩與強硬間擺盪的原因。美蘇與美中案例皆以美國為首，挑戰者在條件上近似，且兩案例演變過程也相像，是美國面對挑戰國案例當中最相近的兩組。綜觀過去的研究，既有探討權力轉移理論的文獻，除了著重在權力差距拉近如何推升支配強權與挑戰國關係的緊張外，也認為挑戰國扮演主動挑起緊張的角色，支配強權則相對被動。此外，探討美國外交政策的文獻，多著重意識形態因素對形塑美國外交政策的重要性。再者，類比美蘇與美中案例的文獻，多擇取特定一段時期予以比較討論。然而，在實存的案例中，美國對蘇聯與中國大陸的政策態度存在著明顯時好時壞的擺盪波動，且意識形態對美國的影響效果也並非持續不變。是以，為了更具體釐清美國在面對蘇聯與中國大陸挑戰時的回應慣性與長期趨勢，本文透過案例觀察與歷史類比，以兩組自變數的相互消長，探討美國的政策態度於連續不同時期在和緩與強硬兩條路線選擇的原因。根據本文所確立的美國回應模式，共同安全威脅及過久征戰耗損得以讓美國緩和對蘇聯及中國大陸的政策態度，但當此二要素淡化或消逝時，美國的政策態度將主要受意識形態歧異與權力差距拉近的影響而趨向強硬，容易衝撞由核武嚇阻所畫下的防線。總而言之，此透過分析與類比而得的美國回應模式，不只解釋了美國的政策態度在兩案例一路以來的起伏波動，更得以進一步展望未來美中關係的發展。

This thesis addressed the research puzzle that how the U.S. responds to challenges from Soviet Union and China. In fact, the U.S.-Soviet and Sino-American relations have similar trajectories and case characteristics, including the role that the U.S. played and challengers’ capabilities. Privious works about Power Transition Theory focus on power gap between dominant power and challenger. They put more emphasis on challenger’s side because of its dissatisfaction toward the status quo which was established and maintained by dominant power. Besides, existing works about U.S. foreign policy usually claim that ideology is crucially important in that field. However, in the reality, we still can observe dominant power’s attitude fluctuated in these two cases, despite the trend power gap getting closer. Furthermore, ideology does not always have strong influence on U.S. foreign policy. In order to solve the research puzzle, we start from these two cases’ similarities, figuring out the response pattern of the U.S. The result shows that without restraints from the following two factors, including common security threat and consumption of war, under the ceiling set by nuclear weapon deterrence, ideology and threat derived from closer power gap both bring the U.S. attitudes toward Soveit Union and China into hostile rather than detente. Above all, the U.S. response pattern not only explains these two cases’ past, but also points out the possible future scenarios of Sino-American relation.