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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 張倉榮 | |
dc.contributor.author | Hung-Te Yeh | en |
dc.contributor.author | 葉弘德 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T17:27:13Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2012-08-20 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2012-08-20 | |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2012-08-15 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 1. 王嘉和,2008,「氣候變遷與地層下陷對台灣西南沿海地區演水之衝擊評估」,國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學系碩士論文。
2. 朱佳仁,2006,「風工程概論」,科技圖書。 3. 江火明,曾仁佑,2002,「台灣地區基本風能分佈」,工研院能資所與中央大學大氣物理所合作研究成果。 4. 江火明,曾仁佑,2005,「台灣中部地區風力電廠廠址評選與風力發電量估算技術研究」,行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫。 5. 行政院國家科學委員會臺灣氣候變遷推估與資訊平台建置計畫,2011,「台灣氣候變遷科學報告」。 6. 杜逸龍,2009,「風力發電機發電量之推估」,國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學系博士論文。 7. 林和毅,2000,「利用MM5模式評估台灣地區風能蘊藏量之研究」,國立中央大學大氣物理研究所碩士論文。 8. 柳中明、吳明進、林淑華、陳盈蓁、楊胤庭、林瑋翔、曾于恆、陳正達,2008,「臺灣地區未來氣候變遷預估」,行政院國家科學研究委員會報告。 9. 張倉榮,謝怡芳,許華倚,2003,「台灣地區風能密度與適當風力機選擇之先期評估」,中國農業工程學報,第39卷,第一期,42-53。 10. 莊月璇,2001,「台灣地區風速機率分佈之研究」,國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文。 11. 陳俊龍,2009,「氣候變遷對台灣地區風能之影響評估」,國立台灣大學生物環境系統工程學系碩士論文。 12. 陳美蘭,2007,「風能應用技術」,物理雙月刊,第29卷,第3期,697-705。 13. 工研院能源與環境研究所網頁。 http://re.org.tw/Pro/f1/f1.htm 14. 中央大學大氣科學系台灣風能網站。 http://www.atm.ncu.edu.tw/93/wind/ 15. 經濟部能源局,2005,「能源政策白皮書」。 http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/。 16. Al-Abbadi, N.M., (2005), Wind energy resource assessment for five locations in Saudi Arabia. Renewable Energy, 30, 1489-1499. 17. Castro, R., Ferreira, L., (2001), Comparison between chronological and probabilistic methods to estimate wind power capacity credit. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 16 (4), 904-909. 18. Celik, A.N., (2003), Energy output estimation for small-scale wind power generators using Weibull-representative wind data. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 91, 693-707. 19. Celik, A.N., (2004), A statistical analysis of wind power density based on the Weibull and Rayleigh models at the southern region of Turkey. Renewable Energy, 29, 593-604. 20. Chan, J.C.L., (2000), Tropical cyclone activity over the western north pacificassociated with El Nino and La Nina Events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972. 21. Chang, T.J., Tu, Y.L., (2007), Evaluation of monthly capacity factor of WECS using chronological and probabilistic wind speed data: A case study of Taiwan. Renewable Energy, 32, 1999-2010. 22. Chang, T.J., Wu, Y.T., Hsu, H.Y., Chu, C.R., Liao, C.M., (2003), Assessment of wind characteristics and wind turbine characteristics in Taiwan. Renewable Energy, 28, 851-871. 23. Cui, X.P., Sun, Z.B., (1999), East Asian winter monsoon index and its varationanalysis. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 22,321-325. 24. Gong, D.Y., Wang, S.W., (1999), Long-term variability of the Siberian High and thepossible connection to global warming (in Chinese). ActaGeographicaSinica54, 125-133. 25. Jamil, M., Parsa, S., Majidi, M., (1995), Wind power statistics and an evaluation of wind energy density. Renewable Energy, 6(5), 623-628. 26. Li, G., (2000), Feasibility of large scale offshore wind power for Hong Kong-a preliminary study. Renewable Energy, 21, 387-402. 27. Lun, I.Y.F., Lam, J.C., (2000), A study of Weibull parameters using long-term wind observations. Renewable Energy, 20, 145-153. 28. Pryor, S.C., Schoof, J.T., Barthelmie, R.J., (2005), Empirical downscaling of wind speed probability distributions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D19109. 29. Sailor, J.D., Michael, S., Melissa, H., (2008), Climate change implications for wind power resources in the Northwest United States. Renewable Energy, 33, 2393-2406. 30. Segal, M., Pan, z., Arritt, R.W., (2001), On the potential change in wind power over the US due to increases of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Renewable Energy, 24(2), 235-243. 31. Shi, N., (1996), Features of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity on multiple timesscale in recent 40 years and their relation to climate. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 7, 175-182. 32. Tu, Y.L., Chang, T.J., Chen, C.L., Chang, Y.J., (2011), Estimation of monthly wind power output of WECS with limited record period using artificial neural networks. Energy Conversion and Management. 59, 114-121 33. Tu, Y.L., Chang, T.J., Hsieh, C.I., Shih, J.Y., (2010), Artificial neural networks in the estimation of monthly capacity factors of WECS in Taiwan. Energy Conversion and Mamagement. 51, 2938-2946. 34. WWEA, (2009), World wind energy report 2008. 35. IPCC-intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. http://www.ipcc.ch/ 36. Vestas (wind power plants). http://www.vestas.com/ | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/64031 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 自工業革命以來,人類大量使用化石燃料,產生大量溫室氣體,造成全球溫室效應,進而導致氣候異常變異。且近年來發生的石油危機,迫使人們轉而開發汙染較低的再生能源取代化石燃料。有鑒於此,各國目前致力於開發再生能源,因台灣位處季風交替位置,風力資源充沛,近年來在風力資源的開發已有快速的成長。
目前在風力發電產業面臨兩大困境,一是由於台灣本島地狹人稠特性,使陸域風力資源開發受到限制,二是全球溫室效應增強,氣候變遷現象影響風能潛勢。據國內研究指出,台灣西部離岸區域為風能最佳位置,我國經濟部能源局也致力於開發離岸風能,因此本研究使用跨政府氣候變化委員會公布之全球環流模式,評估氣候變遷對台灣西部離岸風能潛勢與發電量之影響。 研究分為兩個層次,首先為了解決全球環流模式空間網格太大的問題,使用統計降尺度之多變數線性迴歸方法,以韋伯風速機率分佈推估台灣西部離岸之風能,建立空間解析度5公里×5公里之風能分佈圖。其次再針對風能較高區域以不同裝置容量離岸風力發電機之標準性能曲線推估其發電量,並探討該區域在氣候變遷影響下,未來90年發電量之變化。 研究結果發現新竹、苗栗、台中外海為風能較佳位置,發電量在離岸距離10公里範圍內,以新竹外海之發電量推估最高,而結果也顯示隨離岸距離越遠發電量越大;同時研究結果也顯示3MW之風機較適合西部離岸風能開發。此外,台灣西部離岸未來整體風力發電量可能因為氣候變遷影響東北季風減弱,造成整體發電量略為減少的趨勢。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Ever since Industrial Revolution, fossil fuel has been overly used and greenhouse gas produced subsequently led to global warming and climate change. Also, due to recent global oil crisis, developing alternative renewable energy becomes important among nations. Surrounded by water, Taiwan has plenty of wind energy andrecently has a growth spurt on the development of wind resources. However, there are two limitations for the development of wind industry in Taiwan: the confined yet densely populated land and the growing of greenhouse effect. Taiwan’s west coast has been considered the best location for wind energy development, where Bureau of energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs has been endeavored to offshore wind output.
This study uses GCMs published by IPCC to see how climate change might affect wind energy and energy output on offshore on the west coast. Multi-Variable Regression and Weibull wind speed probability distribution were firstly applied to estimate wind energy and to establish a spatial wind atlas in 5km×5km resolution, so as to avoid potential mistake caused by stretched grid within Global Circulation Model. Secondly the nominal performance curve of WECS at rated power was implemented to estimate the energy output for 90 years from now. As a result, wind energy on the offshore of Hsinchu, Miaoli and Taichung appears to be higher. Hsinchu has the highest energy output, and the energy output will increase evidently by the distance offshore in 30km.The result also suggests that WECS at 3.0MW is better implemented in this area. To conclude, wind output in Taiwan might be shortened in the near future due to a weakened northeast monsoon caused by climate change. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T17:27:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-101-R99622030-1.pdf: 10512198 bytes, checksum: a9dbc117d297f8e9396027e8d642a2f4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 目錄
摘要 i Abstract ii 目錄 iii 表目錄 v 圖目錄 vi 第一章 緒論 1 1.1前言 1 1.2研究動機與目的 2 1.3文獻回顧 3 1.3.1風能潛勢評估 3 1.3.2風力發電機發電量推估 4 1.3.3氣候變遷對風能之影響評估 4 1.3.4小結 5 第二章 理論與研究方法 6 2.1氣候變遷模式 6 2.1.1 全球環流模式 6 2.1.2溫室氣體排放情境 7 2.2降尺度模式 8 2.3風能評估模式 9 2.4發電量推估 11 第三章 統計降尺度模式建立 15 3.1氣候變遷資料來源 15 3.2 離岸風速資料重現 16 3.3降尺度模式建立 17 第四章 風能推估 25 4.1 研究範圍 25 4.2 結果討論 25 4.2.1風能較佳位置 25 4.2.2未來風能變化 26 第五章 推估發電量 54 5.1 研究範圍 54 5.2 風力發電機選用 54 5.3 結果討論 54 5.3.1風機比較 55 5.3.2最佳發電位置 55 5.3.3未來發電量變化 56 第六章 結論與建議 65 6.1結論 65 6.2建議 66 參考文獻 67 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 氣候變遷對台灣西部離岸風能潛勢
與發電量之影響評估 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Wind Power and Electricity Generation in Western Offshore of Taiwan | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 100-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.coadvisor | 謝正義 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 杜逸龍,曾仁佑,朱佳仁,林怡均 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,風力發電,統計降尺度,韋伯分佈,推估發電量, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Climate change,Offshore,Wind power,GCMs,Downscaling, | en |
dc.relation.page | 70 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2012-08-16 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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