以創新擴散模型及產品生命週期分析半導體技術發展

Abstract

半導體產業是台灣最具規模之高科技產業，尤以晶圓代工（Foundry）持產業之牛耳。台灣在晶圓代工產業全球市佔率在2011年有六成左右，產值約為181億美元，居於世界晶圓代工之冠，其中台積電（TSMC）約佔 49%，聯電（UMC）約佔 12%；同時台積電也是整體半導體產業中單一製造公司第三大，僅次於Intel及Samsung。半導體市場在2005-2011年之複合成長率約為11%，展望2013-2015之市場成長預估為6.6%-7.9%，2015的市場規模達到4,000億美元，其中晶圓代工仍有10%之成長。晶圓代工製造服務模式透過更專業的垂直分工，以更高效能及更低成本實現積體電路量產，此種生意模式造就無晶圓廠IC設計公司(Fabless IC Company)蓬勃發展，至2011年IC設計公司已達626億美元市場規模。 由於終端電子產品的需求快速成長，推動積體電路製造技術在高度電路整合，效能，及成本之創新，此技術推力來自於著名的半導體產業成長法則「摩爾定律」。晶圓代工主要以製程技術及設計服務為主，在摩爾定律的推動之下，每一世代的製程技術可視為一種產品，因此技術的生命週期是否符合羅傑斯成長模型，其創新擴散是否具有S-curve的特質，對於資本密集的半導體產業的持續投資、新製程技術導入、投資報酬優化、及建立競爭優勢格外重要。 本研究探討晶圓代工產業的技術發展的S-curve特性。採用定量方式研究摩爾定律及技術發展活動，以台積電為個案，分析不同世代製程技術的市場出貨、效能（良率）趨勢、技術發展曲線、及多重世代技術的學習曲線，作為業者及後續研究者之建議。

The semiconductor industry is one of potential high-tech industries in Taiwan. Especially the Foundry is at the leading edge in the industry of the world. Up to 2011, Taiwan’s foundry took about 60% market share of the global foundry market and the revenue reached US$18.1 billion, in which, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) shares about 49% of foundry market and about 12% for UMC. TSMC is also the third largest single manufacturing company in the overall semiconductor industry, behind Intel and Samsung. The compound annual growth rate of semiconductor market is 11% during 2005-2011 and looking forward to 6.6%-7.9% in 2013-2015. The market scale will reach US$400 billion in 2015. Foundry still keeps 10% growth until 2015. Wafer foundry model focus on dedicated providing manufacturing services for high performance and low cost integrated circuits (IC). This business model enabled many fabless IC design companies. Up to 2011, IC design companies reached a market size of US$62.6 billion already. The strong demand of electronic devices drives integrated circuit manufacturing technology in highly integrated, higher performance, and lower cost. This technology thrust from the 'Moore's Law', the well-known growth law in the semiconductor industry. Foundry focuses on process technologies and design services. Under the driven force of Moore's Law, each generation of process technology can be regarded as a product. For such a capital-intensive industry, two characteristics are important to lead a company make right decision in terms of investment in new process technology development, optimization of return on investment, and how to establish a competitive advantage. Two characteristics are “Whether the technology life-cycle meets Rogers' growth model” and ”Is the technology innovation diffusion has characteristics of the S-curve.” This study investigated the characteristics of the S-curve in the semiconductor process technology development from the foundry industry. Based on Moore’s Law and technology roadmap by ITRS to analyze technology development activities in quantitative approach. Take TSMC as the case to study the shipments, technology performance curves, technology development trends, and learning curves within technology generations. Based on this study, conclusions and recommendations will be proposed to the industry. Furthermore, directions for future studies will also be addressed.