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http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/63480
標題: | 臺灣稻作產量與溫度之關係:坪割資料之實證研究 The Relationship between Rice Yield and Temperature in Taiwan: The Empirical Evidence from Ground Survey Data |
作者: | Chia-Hsiang Hsu 許嘉翔 |
指導教授: | 張靜貞(Ching-Cheng Chang) |
關鍵字: | 氣候變遷,生育度數,水稻產量,夜溫,混合迴歸, climate change,GDD,rice yield,night temperature,pooling regression, |
出版年 : | 2012 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 根據經濟合作與發展組織 (OECD) 和聯合國農糧組織 (FAO) 近來的研究指出,隨氣候變遷出現的顯著增溫和極端降雨將會對農業帶來嚴重衝擊,尤其是主要作物的收穫量,從而導致糧食價格上升。過去文獻常使用生育度數(Growing-Degree-Days, GDD) 以衡量作物生長期間的氣溫對最終產量之影響,但忽略掉當增溫超過某一門檻值所帶來的負面影響。本研究使用Lobell等人於2011年提出的修正後生育度數法, 將行政院農委會於2002--2009年間所蒐集的臺灣稻米坪割調查資料庫與中央氣象局自動觀測站氣候資料作地區配對,並使用混合迴歸模型進行參數估計。結果發現臺灣兩期稻作產量和氣溫間均存在非線性關係,且氣溫對兩期作產量之影響極為類似。在控制管理能力、降雨量和區域效果後,臺灣的稻作產量會隨著基礎溫和最適溫間的生育度數增加而降低,但超過最適溫的生育度數卻有正面的貢獻。這種與預期不一致的結果刻畫出氣候變遷和人類活動間複雜的互動效果。 According to the recent reports by the OECD and FAO, agriculture will be hit hard by the rising temperatures and irregular rainfalls associated with global climate change. This development can have far-reaching impact on staple crop harvests leading to rising food prices. Previous literature often uses the Growing-Degree-Days (GDD) method to evaluate the impact of warming temperature on crop yields. However, warming above a certain threshold can be quite harmful to growth and cause different growth rates. This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between temperature and rice yield using a modified GDD model proposed by Lobell et al. (2011). A ground survey of data on Japonica rice in Taiwan over the period 2002--2009 was mapped with the daily weather data provided by automated weather stations in the pooling regression. We found a highly significant nonlinear effect of temperature on rice yields and the coefficient estimates for the first and second rice crops basically follow the similar pattern. After controlling for management, rainfall, and regional effects, rice yields in Taiwan decrease with the rising of average growing season temperature, but increase by exposing to temperature above a threshold where warming can be potentially harmful. These unexpected results highlight the complex interactions between climate and human activities. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/63480 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 農業經濟學系 |
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