以引力模型探討影響國際服務貿易流量之決定因素

Abstract

台灣的服務業產值在2011年佔國內生產毛額67%的比例；台灣服務業的就業人口在同年度佔總就業人口58.6%的比例，以上的數據顯示服務業現在為支撐台灣經濟的最重要產業。台灣是個具有貿易出口競爭力的國家，WTO的資料顯示，近年來我國出口貿易值為全世界第16名；從我國中央銀行國際收支表之統計數據來看，我國自1984年至2011年，平均每年的貿易都能維持約一百八十億美元的順差，有時甚至有高達三百億美元的貿易順差。相較之下，我國的服務貿易出口值在全世界排第24名；從中央銀行的統計數據來看，我國的服務貿易歷年來皆呈現逆差，自1984年至2007年，平均每年的服務貿易逆差為57億美元；與亞洲四小龍相比，我國自1998年以來，服務貿易出口方面在四小龍之中一直都是排名最後；1998年我國與香港、新加坡與韓國之服務貿易出口差距分別為171.3億美元、58億美元與81.7億美元；而至2009年與此三國之差距卻提高到550.8億美元、430.8億美元與250.8億美元，顯示香港、新加坡與韓國之服務貿易競爭力已與我國拉開差距，以上數據都顯示台灣的服務業出口競爭力不足。 我國政府近年亦正視發展服務業的重要性，故在2007年成立了商業發展研究院，並於2009年通過服務業發展方案，欲整合各部會的力量來發展服務業。若欲有效利用資源發展服務業，則必須以實證研究找出影響服務貿易流量的決定因素，才能有效擬定政策輔導服務業發展，但國內目前欠缺服務業貿易的相關研究，故本研究欲以引力模型對國際服務貿易流量做實證分析，找出影響服務貿易流量之關鍵因素，並藉此提出相關政策建議。 本研究建構五個模型分析2005年至2008年間OECD會員國彼此的服務貿易出口總額、通訊服務業、旅遊服務業、金融服務業和文創及個人服務業之出口額作分析。本研究的實證結果顯示，進口國的GDP、經濟自由度和產業結構；出口國對進口國的外人直接投資；貿易雙方是否有相鄰國境對服務貿易出口有顯著的正向影響。距離則對服務貿易出口有顯著的負向貿易阻隔效果。

The output value of service industry in Taiwan accounted for 67% of Taiwan’s Gross domestic product in the year 2011; in the same year, the working population of service industry accounted for 58.6% of total employment in Taiwan. These statistics show that the service industry has become the most important industry in Taiwan. Taiwan has always been an export-oriented country. Indeed, Taiwan’s export competitiveness is very strong, and the average trade surplus from 1984 to 2011 is 18 billion U.S. dollar per year. In contrast, Taiwan’s export competitiveness is not very good when it comes to the trade in services; the average trade deficit from 1984 to 2007 is 5.7 billion U.S dollar per year in Taiwan’s service industry. Comparing to the other three countries of the well-known Asia Dragons, also known as the Four Asia Tigers, Taiwan’s export value of trade in services has been the lowest among the Asia Dragons since 1998, and the gap of export value between the other members of Asia Dragons and Taiwan has been widened in the past decade. These signs all point out that Taiwan’s export competitiveness of trade in services, unlike its competitiveness of trade in goods, needs to be strengthened. Since the global financial crisis of 2007, the Taiwan government has understood the risk of putting all the resources in only one major industry, and decided to promote the service industry. It is important to develop the service industry efficiently, since the resources are limited. In order to accomplish the goal, researches that target the determinants of trade in services are needed. As a matter of fact, Taiwan lacks this kind of study, so the main purpose of this thesis is to assess the impact of various factors on the flow of trade in services, and give policy recommendations according to the empirical result of this study. Using the standard gravity model, we ran regression on export of services between the OECD member countries from the year 2005 to 2008. The results indicated that the Gross domestic product, Freedom of the world index and industry structure of the import country; Adjacent border between export and import countries have significant positive influence on the export flow of trade in services. And the distances between export and import countries has significant negative effect on the export flow of trade in services.