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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
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dc.contributor.advisor | 范正成 | |
dc.contributor.author | Chih-Hsiang Yang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 楊智翔 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T16:26:23Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2014-02-01 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2013-02-01 | |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2013-01-21 | |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/63174 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 就歷史資料的統計結果而言,目前氣候變遷導致之極端降雨事件的發生頻率確有逐漸上升的趨勢,而隨颱風、豪雨所觸發的坡地災害,如崩塌及土石流等之發生潛勢亦隨之提高。在面臨氣候變遷之趨勢已日漸顯著的同時,本研究期能藉由探討氣候變遷對高屏溪流域坡地災害發生潛勢之影響,提供後續相關研究或防災策略調整之參考。
為達成前述目的,本研究透過7種GCMs模式及3種未來情境,配合建置之崩塌及土石流發生潛勢評估模式,進行氣候變遷對研究區域內坡地災害發生潛勢之影響評估。研究結果顯示,CSMK3模式-A1B情境的模擬結果對區內未來防災衝擊較大且與近期(2005~2011年)區內實際災例的分布狀況較為相符。以此結果而言,研究區域內未來(2020~2039年)「極高」(發生頻率年小於5年)崩塌發生潛勢的面積與基期相比,增加175 km2 (70.8 %)之多;而「極高」土石流發生潛勢的溪流數量則是增加9條 (90.0 %)之多。另由區內防災潛勢分布圖之結果觀之,未來屬高防災潛勢區域的範圍有顯著增加的趨勢,本研究模擬未來短期土石流發生潛勢的結果與近年災例分佈情形相符,該結果應可提供高潛勢聚落劃設的參考。此外,現有避難處所位置與崩塌防災潛勢圖層套疊後發現,在未來有37處避難處所將處在高防災潛勢(崩塌)的區域內。此一結果說明未來在避難處所的選取方面,應綜合考量土石流災害影響範圍及崩塌潛勢區塊等兩項因素,才可使避難處所安全性的疑慮降至最低。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | From the statistical results in the near history, the frequencies of extreme rainfall events induced by climate change have increased. Accordingly, potentials of slopeland hazards such as landslides and debris flows have also increased. To reflect the apparent trend of climate change, in this study, the effect of climate change on the hazard potentials of the slopelands in the watersheds of Kao-Ping stream was investigated; and the results are expected to be useful for related studies and disaster prevention strategies in the future.
To achieve the above-mentioned goal, in this study, 7 GCMs models and 3 futrue scenarios were used and combined to establish two models for evaluating the hazard potentials of slopelands and analyzing the potentials of slopeland disasters in the future. The results showed that the impact of the CSMK3 model with the A1B scenario on the slopeland disaster potential in the study area was the most consistent with the distribution of the recently real disasters. For the simulated resultsof CSMK3 model with the A1B scenario (2020~2039), compared with the baseline (1980~1999), in the study area, the area of landslides with the return period less than 5 years increases by 175 km2 (70.8 %), and the number of potential debris flow torrents with the return period less than 5 years increases by 9 (90.0 %). From the potential distribution map of disaster prevention in the study area, it is found that there is a significant increasing trend for high potential of disaster prevention. It is also found that the evaluated potential of slopelands hazard in the periods of 2020 to 2039 is similar to that occurred in the recent years. Therefore, the findings in this study could be used as a reference for plotting the villages with high disaster potential. Apart from these, according to the maps of present shelter locations and high potential of disaster prevention (landslides) simulated in this study, the numbers of shelters located in the areas of high potential of disaster prevention (landslides) in the periods of 2020 to 2039 might increase up to 37. From this finding, it is suggested that while selecting the shelter locations in the future, potential zones of debris flows and landslides be considered so that the risks of shelter safety may be minimized. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T16:26:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-102-D96622004-1.pdf: 9652759 bytes, checksum: 656cc4940a7f24acefad90726e1d1c2d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 誌 謝 I
摘 要 II ABSTRACT III 目 錄 IV 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 IX 符號表 X 第一章、前言 1 1.1研究緣起 1 1.2研究目的 1 第二章、研究背景概況 3 2.1研究區域概述 3 2.1.1集水區水系 3 2.1.2氣象 7 2.1.3地文資料 7 2.1.4道路與交通 10 2.1.5人文概況 10 2.1.6土石流潛勢溪流 10 2.2氣候變遷影響評估 14 2.2.1全球氣候變遷發展現況 14 2.2.2台灣地區氣候變遷發展現況 15 2.2.3氣候變遷對坡地災害影響 17 2.3坡地災害發生潛勢 18 2.3.1土石流災害潛勢評估 18 2.3.2崩塌災害潛勢評估 21 第三章、研究方法 25 3.1資料蒐集與分析 25 3.1.1雨量資料蒐集 25 3.1.2代表性雨量站篩選及資料補遺 25 3.1.3土砂災例資料蒐集 31 3.1.4保全對象資料蒐集 31 3.2坡地災害發生潛勢評估模式 40 3.2.1邏輯斯迴歸之原理說明 40 3.2.2邏輯斯迴歸之分析流程 41 3.2.3歷年坡地災害發生潛勢之趨勢分析 43 3.3氣候變遷影響評估 47 3.3.1大氣環流模式及未來情境 47 3.3.2氣候生成模式 50 第四章、坡地災害發生潛勢評估模式之建置成果 53 4.1研究區域劃分 53 4.2地文因子蒐集及量化結果 53 4.2.1影響崩塌因子 54 4.2.2影響土石流因子 57 4.3評估模式建置結果 61 4.3.1崩塌發生潛勢評估模式 63 4.3.2土石流發生潛勢評估模式 67 4.3.3評估模式之綜合分析 68 4.4歷年坡地災害發生潛勢之趨勢分析 69 第五章、氣候變遷對坡地災害發生潛勢之影響評估 75 5.1各式分析工具之選用及評估結果 75 5.1.1大氣環流模式及未來情境 75 5.1.2 CLIGEN氣候生成模式之適用性評估 76 5.2坡地災害潛勢定義及基期分析結果 79 5.3未來崩塌發生潛勢之影響評估 90 5.4未來土石流之發生潛勢評估 96 第六章、未來調適策略之研擬 110 6.1高潛勢聚落劃設 110 6.1.1崩塌高潛勢聚落之探討 111 6.1.2土石流高潛勢聚落之探討 113 6.2疏散避難規劃 119 6.3其他調適因應策略 121 第七章、結論與建議 123 7.1結論 123 7.2建議 124 參考文獻 126 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 氣候變遷對坡地災害發生潛勢之影響評估 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Effects of Climate Change on the Slopeland Hazard Potentials | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 101-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 博士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 盧昭堯,盧光輝,林俊全,童慶斌 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,坡地災害發生潛勢,崩塌,土石流, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | Climate change,Slopeland hazard potential,Landslides,Debris flows, | en |
dc.relation.page | 129 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2013-01-21 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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