請用此 Handle URI 來引用此文件:
http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/62756
完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 邱祈榮(Chyi-Rong Chiou) | |
dc.contributor.author | 林幸樺 | en |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T16:09:30Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2013-09-07 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2013-09-07 | |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2013-04-01 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 1.包曉斌、操建華(2008),中國木材市場分析及政策評述,林業經濟,2(4):24-29。
2. 包英爽、宿海穎、何友均(2010),荷蘭林產品綠色採購政策與實踐,世界林業研究,23(5):64-68。 3. 古永嘉、李富川、李國賓(2007),七大工業國與中國貿易關係之設定與實證—引力模型之應用,台灣銀行季刊,58(2): 50-61。 4. 印中華、宋維明、張英、李尚治、高廣茂(2011),中國林業產業應對國際貿易壁壘的策略研究,世界林業研究,24(6):55-60。 5. 何劍(2010),計量經濟學實驗和Eviews使用,中國統計出版社,211-227。 6. 宋維明、印中華(2010),應對國際林產品貿易面臨的新挑戰,世界林業研究,23(5):1-5。 7. 李俊彥(2011),台灣進口可疑非法砍伐林木枝現況及因應措施,林業研究專訊,18(1):66-69。 8. 李桂梅、孫久靈、謝明東、鐘育飛、王光忻(2009),國際木材非法採伐討論及其我國對策,熱帶林業,37(2):17-20。 9. 李劍泉、陸文明、李智勇、段新芳(2007),打擊木材非法採伐的森林執法管理與貿易國際進程,世界林業研究,20(6): 67-71。 10. 邱祈榮、林俊成、何幸耘(2012),REDD施行對台灣進口原木與製材衝擊之評估,中華林學季刊,45(2):137-154。 11. 金普春(2005),關於非法採伐和貿易問題的思考,綠色中國,42(16): 21-23。 12. 侯方淼、宋維明、陳偉、范悅(2010),中國林產品對外貿易政策評價初探,世界林業研究,23(5): 44-48。 13. 唐帥、宋維明、田明華(2011),非法進口俄羅斯木材比重測算及影響因素分析,林業經濟,(6):46-50。 14. 唐啟義(2007),DPS數據處理系統:實驗設計、統計分析及數據挖掘,科學出版社,第二版,頁868-872。 15. 孫久靈、陸文明(2009),非法採伐與相關貿易問題研究,中國林業經濟,96(3):40-53。 16. 高鐵梅(2007),計量經濟分析方法與建模—Eviews應用與實例,清華大學出版社,535 頁。 17. 陳旭昇(2009),時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用,東華書局,366頁。 18. 郭迺鋒、彭素玲、劉名寰、謝雨豆、詹智盛(2010),仿冒威脅對全球創意經濟商品貿易流量之影響-配對國家追蹤資料引力模型的驗證,經建專論,8(10): 61-89。 19. 張海偉(2010),貿易引力模型的擴展及應用綜述,商業經濟,342(1): 68-70。 20. 楊紅強、聶影(2008),中國木材供需矛盾與原木進口結構分析,世界農業,351(7):53-56。 21. 趙良聽(2011),國際打擊非法採伐對中國木材進口的影響,南京林業大學研究生碩士學位論文,59頁。 22. 劉頡(2010),中國原木進口變化趨勢及其影響因素,林業經濟,374(2):109-112。 23. 戴明輝、沈文星(2010),中國木質林產品貿易流量與潛力研究—引力模型方法,資源科學,32(11):2115-2122。 24. 謝佳利、亢新剛、龔直文、李楊(2011),1961-2009年全球工業原木與主要終端產品的產量變化,浙江農林大學學報,28(2):287-292。 25. Ajani, J. (2011) The Global Wood Market, Wood Resource Productivity and Price Trends: An Examination with Special Attention to China. Environmental Conservation.38(1):53-63. 26. Albert, M. and André, C.J. (2010) Identifying the Trade Theory Model behind Botswana’s Sectoral Exports. University of Pretoria. 23 pp. 27. Bergstrand, J.H. (1989) The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics.71: 43-153. 28. Bhattarai, M. and Hammig, M. (2001) Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curvefor Deforestation: a Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America, Africa and Asia. WorldDevelopment.29(6): 995-1010. 29. Centre for International Economics (CIE) (2010) A Final Report to Inform aRegulation Impact Statement for the Proposed New Policy on Illegally Logged Timber. The Centre for International Economics.142 pp. 80 accessible at:http://www.thecie.com.au/content/news/Illegal_logging.pdf 30. Contreras-Hermosilla, A., Doornbosch, R., Lodge M. (2007) The Economics of Illegal Logging and Associate Trade. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).44 pp. 31. Deardorff, A.V. (1995) Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neo-classical World? The Regionalization ofthe World Economy.28 pp. 32. Egger, P.(2000)A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity equation.Economics Letters. 66:25-61pp. 33. Eichengreen, B., Irwin, D.A. (1998)The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows. The Regionalization of theWorld Economy. 53pp. 34. EIA (2012) Appetite for Destruction: China's Trade in Illegal Timber. Environmental Investigation Agency.32 pp. 35. FAO (2009) State of the World’s Forests 2009. Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch Communication Division FAO.60 pp. 36. FAO (2010) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010. FAO Forestry Paper: 163. 378 pp. 37. FAO (2011) State of the World’s Forests2011. Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch Communication Division FAO. 179pp. 38. FLEG (2010) Social Deprivation One of the Main Causes of Illegal Logging in Azerbaijan, Study Finds. ENPI Info Centre. 39. Felbab-Brown, V. (2011) Not as Easy as Falling Off a Log: The Illegal Logging Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region and Possible Mitigation Strategies. Foreign Policy at Brookings.70 pp. 40. GLOBAL TIMBER .ORG.UK: http://www.globaltimber.org.uk/index.htmassessed on: 2012/10/15 41. ILLEGAL-LOGGING INFO: http://www.illegal-logging.info/ assessed on: 2012/10/15 42. Jaakko Pöyry, C. (2005) Overview of Illegal Logging. Australian Departmentof Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, 51A05753.29 pp. 43. James, E. A. (1979) A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review.69(1):106-116. 44. Kahane, L.H. (2011) Understanding the Interstate Export of Crime Guns: A Gravity Model Approach. Contemporary Economic Policy.17 pp. 45. Kaimowitz, D. and Angelsen, A. (1998) Economic Models of Tropical Deforestation: A Review. Bogor,Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research.153 pp. 46. Lawson, S. and MacFaul, L. (2010) Illegal Logging and Related Trade —Indicators of the Global Response. Chatham House Associate.154 pp. 47. Li, R., Buongiorno, J., Turner, J.A., Zhu, S. and Prestemon, J. (2008) Long-term Effects of Eliminating Illegal Logging on the World Forest Industries, Trade, and Inventory. Forest Policy and Economics. 10 (7-8):480–490. 48. Linnemann, H. (1966) An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. North-Holland Pub. Co.234 pp. 49. Miller, D. and Chen, M.J. (1996) The Simplicity of Competitive Repertoires: An Empirical Analysis. Strategic Management Journal.17(6):419-440. 50. Paas,T. (2000)Gravity Approach for Modeling Trade Flows between Estonia and the Main Trading Partners.University of Tartu.47 pp. 51. Palmer, C.E. (2001) Extent and Causes of Illegal Logging: An Analysis of a Major Cause of Tropical Deforestation in Indonesia. Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment (CSERGE):London, UK.33 pp. 52. Pamela J.S. (2002) Patent Rights and Trade: Analysis of Biological Products, Medicinals and Botanicals, and Pharmaceuticals. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.84(2):495-512. 53. Pöyhönen, P. (1963) A Tentative Model for the Flows of Trade between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.90(1): 93-100. 54. Rahman, M.M. (2003) A Panel Data Analysis of Bangladesh’s Trade: The Gravity Model Approach. University of Sydney.54 pp. 55. Robbins, A.S.T. and Perez-Garcia, J.M. (2012) Impacts of Illegal Logging Restrictions on China’s Forest Products Trade. School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington.23 pp. 56. Scotland, N. and Ludwig, S. (2002) Deforestation, the Timber Trade and Illegal Logging. EC Workshop on Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT).9 pp. 57. Seneca Creek Associates, LLC & Wood Resources International, LLC.(2004) “Illegal” Logging and Global Wood Markets : The Competitive Impacts on the U.S. Wood Products Industry. American Forest & Paper Association.190 pp. 58. Sun, X.F. and Kerstin, C. (2011) Baseline Study 1, China: Overview of Forest Governance, Markets and Trade. European Forest Institute.52 pp. 59. Transparency International -the global coalition against corruption: http://www.transparency.org/assessed on: 2012/12/03 60. Turner, J.A., Maplesden, F. and Johnson, S. (2007) Measuring the Impacts of Illegal Logging. ITTO Tropical Forest Update.19-22 . 61. United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database: http://comtrade.un.org/db/dqQuickQuery.aspxassessed on: 2012/9/2 62. World Bank (2002). A Revised Strategy for the World Bank Group.Washington D.C. 48 pp. 63. World Bank (2012).Justice for Forests:Improving Criminal Justice Effortsto Combat Illegal Logging. Washington D.C. 56pp. 64. World Bank-Worldwide Governance Indicators: http://www.govindicators.orgassessed on: 2012/9/14 65. World Growth (2011) A Poison, Not a Cure: The Campaign to Ban Trade in Illegally Logged Timber. WORLD GROWTH.29 pp. | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/62756 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 非法木材的砍伐是森林議題中相當重要的一項,非法木材尤其集中在開發中國家,不僅造成當地毀林的問題,更讓該地區經濟受損。當今國際貿易盛行,非法木材容易流入貿易市場,其中貿易統計與國際報告一再指出,中國為非法木材主要目的地,這些原木很可能再度以加工商品的形式出口到世界各地,擾亂國際木質產品的行情。中國當局若解決非法木材流入國內的問題,不僅能有效提升國內原料品質,且為全球林業永續發展的目標有所貢獻。
本文先估算中國近年疑似非法原木的進口量,再參考引力模型的原理,對於2000年至2011年疑似非法原木流入中國的主要因素進行實證分析與探討,最後試著提出抑止疑似非法原木貿易的策略。 受限於非法木材流通乃秘密行為,所以採用貿易統計資料差異法估算15國與中國的疑似非法原木流量。實證結果顯示,出口國的人均GDP與流量有正向關係,而中國的人均GDP則相反,與流量呈現反向關係。另外,出口國人口成長率越高,疑似非法原木的流量也越高;而出口國的清廉指數、可耕地面積比例、距離因子以及國家森林計畫的執行都是抑制疑似非法原木貿易流量的因子。從區域的角度而言,俄羅斯與亞太地區對中國的非法原木流量最多,非洲地區雖然相對較少但卻有成長趨勢。掌握重要的影響因素可以發現流量主要取決於出口國國內的特性,建議中國應當留意來自俄羅斯的原木合法性,而各原木出口國應當藉由提升國內治理來緩解當今森林非法砍伐的問題。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Illegal logging is a very important issue for forestry. Illegal logging particularly occurs and exists in developing countries. It not only causes deforestation, but also impacts the region's economy. International trade is so common nowadays, which makes the illegally logged timber easily flow into the trade markets over the world. Many statistical data and international reports show that China is a major destination for illegally logged timber. The illegally logged timber is likely to be exported after processed. The goods disrupt international quotes of wood products. Not only the quality of raw materials in China but also the sustainable development of global forestry will be improved if China resolves the problem.
Firstly, the article estimates the imported volumes of suspicious illegal timber in China during 2000-2011, and then refer to the principle of trade gravity model to analysis and discuss the main factors. Then some strategies are proposed to retain the suspected illegal timber trade. Because logging and trading of illegal timber are secret acts, the flow of illegally logged timber from 15 countries into China is estimated by calculating trade data discrepancies. The results show that the suspected illegally timber flowing into China is closely related to per capita GDP of the exporters, and the relationship is positive. However, the relationship with China's per capita GDP is negative. Further more, the higher growth rate of population in exporters, and more numerous suspected illegal timber flowing into China. Corruption Perceptions Index, the proportion of arable land, the distance factor as well as the implementation of the National Forest Plan are inhibiting factors of trade flows of suspected illegal timber. From the viewpoint of region, the flow of Russia and the Asia-Pacific region is most numerous. Africa region has less volumes but its trend is growing. The important factors influencing the flow depend on the characteristics of the exporters. China should pay attention to the legitimacy of timber imported from Russia, and the timber exporters should alleviate the problem of domestic illegal logging by enhancing their domestic governance. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T16:09:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-102-R99625049-1.pdf: 1512447 bytes, checksum: 67e1ed2106d5df2545fbc8b6d6dec87c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要........................................................................................................................i
ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................ii 目錄………...........................................................................................................iv 圖目錄...................................................................................................................vi 表目錄...................................................................................................................vii 第一章、緒論........................................................................................................1 第一節、研究背景與動機....................................................................................1 第二節、研究目的................................................................................................3 第三節、研究範圍與限制....................................................................................4 第四節、研究架構與流程....................................................................................5 第二章、文獻回顧................................................................................................7 第一節、非法木材貿易量之測算........................................................................7 第二節、引力模型...............................................................................................13 第三章、原木進出口概況分析............................................................................19 第一節、全球原木供需概況...............................................................................19 第二節、中國原木進口概況................................................................................25 第四章、研究材料與方法....................................................................................29 第一節、研究對象與範圍...................................................................................29 第二節、模型設定與變數說明............................................................................32 第三節、變數資料來源與說明...........................................................................39 第四節、計量分析方法與工具...........................................................................43 第五章、實證分析...............................................................................................47 第一節、中國疑似非法原木進口估算結果.......................................................47 第二節、單根檢定結果.......................................................................................55 第三節、共線性檢定...........................................................................................56 第四節、模型實證結果.......................................................................................57 第五節、討論.......................................................................................................62 第六章、結論與建議...........................................................................................75 第一節、結論.......................................................................................................75 第二節、研究限制與未來研究建議...................................................................77 第七章、參考文獻.................................................................................................78 附錄一...................................................................................................................83 附錄二...................................................................................................................87 附錄三...................................................................................................................88 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 應用引力模型探討中國疑似非法原木貿易之研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Applying Gravity Model to Study on the Trade of Illegal Logs in China | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 101-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 林俊成(Chun-Cheng Lin),柳婉郁(Wan-Yu Liu) | |
dc.subject.keyword | 關引力模型,非法木材,中國,原木貿易, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | gravity model,illegal logs,China,timber trade, | en |
dc.relation.page | 91 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2013-04-01 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 森林環境暨資源學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 森林環境暨資源學系 |
文件中的檔案:
檔案 | 大小 | 格式 | |
---|---|---|---|
ntu-102-1.pdf 目前未授權公開取用 | 1.48 MB | Adobe PDF |
系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。