移民政策對加拿大經濟及生育率之影響

Abstract

本研究之目的在探討高技術勞工移民政策對於經濟及福祉之影響，並以移民政策聞名的加拿大為例，進一步研究不同種族的移入對於本國生育率之影響。 本文以三期疊代總體模型內生化生育率，將個體依年齡區分為幼年、青壯年和老年，依人力資本區分為高技術和低技術勞工，依種族區分為生育率不同的亞洲和歐美裔，運用量化分析方式模擬加拿大1993年及2017年25年間的經濟數值，並進一步分析加拿大近期的移民開放政策和以往之分別。 研究顯示進一步的移民開放政策將使加拿大的勞動品質、生產力及生產量獲得提升，且增加人均實質GDP和單位勞動供給實質GDP。高技術勞工因為勞動供給上升導致市場薪資下降，故個人財富減少，終身效用降低；低技術勞工則因勞動市場供給相對稀少，產生與高技術勞工相反之結果。總體而言，該政策小幅度降低社會福祉，減緩社會不均的現象。 生育率部分，雖然近期移民至加拿大大部分為生育率較高的亞洲人種，考量模型中家戶的個體選擇內生化生育率，高技術勞工由於財富變少，效用降低故抑制其生育選擇；低技術勞工則因工資上升導致照顧小孩的機會成本上升，在替代效果大於所得效果情況下，同樣減少生育小孩的數量。因此該政策將小幅度降低加拿大的生育率。

This study tries to discuss two issues. Firstly, we want to examine the economic and welfare effects of raising the number of skilled workers through immigration in Canada. The second issue is about the impact of fertility rate after having higher proportion of Asian through immigration. We construct a three-period general equilibrium overlapping generations model with exogenous immigration rate and endogenous fertility. Using calibration for the simulation, the result is that an immigration policy targeted toward skilled immigrant workers increase labor quality, boosts labor productivity, and raises the productive capacity of the Canadian economy. As for the fertility, although the immigrants have higher ratio of Asian, which have higher fertility rate. The immigration effect matters little in the model. The less wealth for skilled young adults decrease their utility, leading to lower fertility rate. While the fertility rate also decrease for unskilled young adults since the relative cost of caring children increases, reducing the unskilled workers’ incentive to have more children.