貨幣與財政政策對房地產價格的影響：從美國反思台灣

Abstract

金融海嘯之後, 原已不斷攀升的台灣房地產價格, 只稍微停頓便繼續原先的漲 勢。 新北市房價攀升甚至比台北市更為快速。 本文將房地產價格波動的現象, 視 為金融市場體制的一部份, 是相對規模更大、 風險更低的投資標的, 因此在21 世 紀持續採行的寬鬆貨幣與擴大財政政策實施下, 恰好形成房地產漲價的貨幣支撐。 本文從美國經濟發展過程了解貨幣制度的演進, 以及國際貿易發展如何左右 各貿易國在調控匯率的政策走向。 從中更深入地認識到貨幣現象與實質經濟發展 在短期於長期上發生不同的作用。 更為關鍵的是, 美元如何藉著世界歷史的發展 與國際貿易的競合關係取得國際儲備貨幣的地位, 進而運用此一貨幣優勢, 發展出 足以影響全球的貨幣政策, 以謀求國內金融穩定與經濟發展的喘息機會。 在21 世紀看似大潮流般的寬鬆貨幣政策保證下, 房地產成為保守的投資者保 障其資金的不二選擇。 即使房地產泡沫乃造成金融海嘯的主要成因, 已為世人揭 櫫為不爭事實, 金融海嘯之後房地產價格依然沒有下修的跡象。 尤其在某些具有 國際性商業需求的地區, 或者地方上仍有重新開發獲取利益的潛力地區。 這些現 象與地理經濟學家解釋資本第二循環的過程不謀而合。 而去化資金的房地產開發 途徑又與都市發展結合, 成為政治運作的範疇。 本研究基於質性的探討, 輔以總體趨勢數據作為佐證, 希望在反思房地產受總 體環境影響的現象中, 認識到房地產的一支獨秀並非政府拯救一國經濟真正應該 採行的永久性措施。 當寬鬆貨幣政策在短期發揮穩定金融市場的效果之後, 還必 須謀求實質經濟的全面發展, 並避免重蹈房地產泡沫導致嚴重的金融危機, 又陷入 依賴貨幣政策的惡性循環之中。

Housing prices increasing trend got a slight pause after the Financial Tsunami in 2008 and then keep increasing in the 21st century in Taiwan. The price in New Taipei City raises even faster than in Taipei City. Real estates will be recognized as a part of financial market in this essay. Real estates market provides a safer and a better returned investment under loose monetary and fiscal policies as a universal and effective tool to encourage the economies. This essay starts with digging in American economic history and worldwide trade process that ended in the adoption of US dollars as a universal exchange base. Moreover, how American governments take the advantages of being such a unique monetary role to benefit the national public expenses that could cause a huge effect internationally. Although almost all were agreed that the housing bubble mainly caused the financial tsunami in 2008, investors seem never stop putting more money in real estate market recently. Housing prices keep going up, and the trend seems more significant in urban area. People expect housing prices will rise with more international demand for commercial buildings. And there are also some expectations in the local areas that have large potential to develop. This study is based on qualitative study, will be considered as an evidence for Taiwan government. Hope they could move carefully to avoid the real estate phenomenon coming along with loose monetary policy, and seek the comprehensive development of the real economy.