2011年泰國水患對硬碟機產業競爭態勢之影響

Abstract

寡占市場的競爭者彼此間通常存在某種程度的相互依存性，因此廠商在決定競爭策略時，除了思考策略定位與差異化之外，還必須考量產業競爭態勢是處於激烈競爭？或是合作態勢？硬碟機產業於2011年經歷大規模整併而形成二大一小的寡占局面，但是在整併進行階段，泰國水患嚴重衝擊硬碟機產業鏈。本研究的目的在探討2011年泰國水患對整併中的硬碟機產業競爭態勢之影響。 本研究大量蒐集專業媒體報導資料及訪談相關廠商，分析災後一年半期間希捷、威騰兩大硬碟機廠商的市場策略及對對手策略之因應，並運用產業分析、競爭策略及賽局理論等相關理論基礎，探討硬碟機產業競爭態勢之轉變，並預測產業未來發展趨勢。 本研究發現，2011年泰國水患造成硬碟機價格從谷底飆升，除了大幅提高硬碟機廠商獲利之外，亦克服了資訊產品價格易跌難漲的特性，促使廠商市場策略從擴大市占率轉向價格維持，提供了廠商建立謀合默契的機會，廠商亦確實掌握住此機會走向謀合。本研究認為，儘管固態硬碟對傳統硬碟機的替代效應日益明顯，但是只要謀合態勢不被破壞，在未來五年內，進入衰退期的硬碟機產業將持續為僅存的硬碟機廠商帶來不錯的獲利。

A corporation in oligopolistic market must consider not only strategic positioning and differentiation, but also the competition posture (fierce completive or cooperative) of entire industry when determining competitive strategies. Hard drive industry experienced massive consolidation to form two-large-and-one-small oligopoly situation in 2011. In the meanwhile, the severe floods in Thailand impacted the industry supply chain dramatically. This study aimed to investigate the impact of 2011 floods in Thailand on the competitive situation of hard drive industry. In this study, a large collection of professional media information and interviews of related corporations are applied to analyze the competitive strategies of Seagate and Western Digital during the year and a half after the floods. Also, plenty of related theoretical foundations, such as industry analysis, competitive strategy, game theory, and etc., are used to explore the changes of competitive situation and to predict future industrial trends in hard drive industry. The study found that 2011 Thailand floods made the hard drive prices soar from the bottom. In addition to increasing the profit of hard drive manufacturers substantially, it also created room for agreement among the major hard drive manufactures. The manufactures seized the opportunity to avoid price war and steer into price maintenance strategy. This study suggests that, despite substitution effect from SSD increasing obviously, as long as the tacit agreement goes on, the remaining manufactures will continuously earn sound profit in hard drive industry in the next five years.