美國青少年閒置行為對薪資之影響-長期追蹤資料之研究

Abstract

根據美國勞動局統計顯示，近期美國16到24歲青少年閒置行為比例亦日益增加，從西元2001年的10%上升至西元2010年的12%，並且有持續上升的趨勢，因此，本研究想要探討美國青少年在16歲至27歲間既不就學又不工作之閒置行為對其薪資之影響。 本文研究目的在於探討美國青少年閒置行為對其薪資之影響，並採用National Longitudinal Surveys of Young 1997(簡稱NLSY97)之長期追蹤資料進行研究。NLSY97從1997年開始第一波的調查，受訪者為13~17歲的青少年，目前已追蹤至2012年。透過此15年的長期追蹤資料可探討在國青少年於16歲到27歲閒置行為對其薪資之影響。本文分別透過固定效果、隨機效果估以及樣本選擇模型估計閒置行為對其薪資之影響。樣本選擇模型是利用二階段Heckman模型估計在有工作的情況下對其薪資的影響。最後，將二階段Heckman模型加入固定效果並觀察其估計結果。 研究結果發現，閒置行為期間對於其薪資有顯著負面的影響，代表閒置行為期間越長薪資就越低，每閒置一週對於其每年的薪資影響則減少約10.5塊美金。相反的，就學經驗跟就業經驗對於薪資上則都有顯著正向的影響。且就工作型態來說，工作為正職的人對薪資的影響顯著高於工作為兼職的人。而每年工作份數越多的人對薪資有負向的影響。此外，個人特質變數方面，男性對薪資的影響顯著高於女性，有結婚者對薪資的影響也顯著高於沒有結婚的人。而居住在城市的人相較於居住在郊區的人也有較高的薪資。

According to the data showed by Bureau of Labor Statistics of United States, the economic idleness rate of American adolescent aged from 16 to 24 rises in last decade. Thus, this paper is dedicated to examining the analysis of the economic idleness and earnings for American adolescent between 16 to 27 years old. The data source of this study is National Longitudinal Surveys of Young 1997(NLSY97). Our purpose is to use NLSY97 data collected year by year from1997 to 2012, particularly for age from 16 to 27. We first use OLS with fixed effect and random effect to find out how economic idleness influenced the wages. Then, we use Heckman Two Stage Model to correct for non-randomly selected samples and find out how economic idleness influenced the wages under the condition that he or she had a job. Our result is that economic idleness had a negative and significant effect on wages. On the contrary, the cumulative of schooling years and working years had a positive and significant effect on wages. Besides, there is more significant for the people with full time job than the people with part time job. The male are more significant than the female. Also, there is more significant for the people who are married than the people who are not married and there is more significant for the people living in the city than the people living in the urban.