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標題: | 第七屆立委選舉分裂投票探索-空間分析的方法 Research on Split-Vote of Seventh Legislative Election by Spatial Analysis |
作者: | Yen-Fu Chen 陳彥夫 |
指導教授: | 鄧志松(Chih-Sung Teng) |
關鍵字: | 兩票制,分裂投票,空間分析模型,鄰近效應, two ticket voting,split -vote behavior,proximity effect, |
出版年 : | 2013 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 本研究以第七次立委選舉為研究對象,觀察首次以兩票制進行的選舉是否有分裂投票的出現?分析單位為全國358個鄉鎮,透過傳統迴歸和空間分析模型了解影響分裂投票的因素和分佈。本文除了以分裂投票率做為依變數外,還加入了藍營和綠營的分裂投票率,經研究後發現,影響分裂投票的最主要因素是第三勢力候選人,可見候選人魅力對國會選舉來說有相當重要的影響。而藍營的分裂投票受到農業人口和省籍的影響,綠營則是都市化程度和省籍。而空間分析方面,則證明了分裂投票會受到鄰近效應的影響,相鄰的地區分裂投票的情形會相似。 In this research, take the seventh legislative elections for target, It’s first time two ticket voting for congress in Taiwan and it’s a good chance to observe split -vote havior. The unit of analysis are 358 towns in this country. Thronging conventional regression and spatial analysis model to understand the factors that affect the split- voting. Not only the split voting rate as the dependent variable, but also the Pan-Blue and pan-green camp split voting rate .the study found that the most important factor affecting split vote are the third force candidates, showing the charm of candidates for parliamentary elections has a very important influence. The factor that influence blue camp split vote rate are agricultural population and ethnic group. The factor that influence green camp split vote rate are urbanization and ethnic group. The spatial analysis, prove that the split-vote rate would be affected by the proximity effect, the split –vote behavior in adjacent area will be similar. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/60835 |
全文授權: | 有償授權 |
顯示於系所單位: | 國家發展研究所 |
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