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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 譚義績 | |
dc.contributor.author | Li-Ming Tang | en |
dc.contributor.author | 湯黎明 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T09:58:18Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-02-17 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2017-02-17 | |
dc.date.issued | 2016 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2016-12-12 | |
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dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/60134 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 為了解氣候變遷對台灣農業之影響,本研究針對台灣最大宗農產品─稻米─建立一無法觀察效果縱橫資料模型,以2001至2010年台灣各縣市的縱橫資料進行實證。為控制社經解釋變數的內生性,採用工具變數估計法。研究結果顯示,生長季之有效積溫、累積降雨量、累積日照時數與稻米單位面積產量之間存在顯著的非線性關係,有效積溫、累積降雨量每增加1%,稻米產量分別約減少0.76%、0.05%,累積日照時數每增加1%,稻米產量約增加0.28%。累積日照時數影響稻米單位面積產量的顯著性,意味著過去僅納入氣溫和降雨量的計量實證模型可能存在內生性問題,進而導致統計偏誤。欲確保估計品質,設計氣候如何解釋農產量之計量實證模型時,日射量或日照時數應為候選之關鍵氣候因子。最後,利用氣候解釋變數的估計係數,推估2001至2010年間,氣候變遷對台灣稻米生產活動造成的經濟損失約1,104百萬新台幣,此估計值讓我們更具體的理解氣候變遷對台灣農業之影響。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | To move Taiwan’s climate change policy forward, improved analyses of climate impacts on agricultural sectors using rigorous methodology and high quality data are called for. This study establishes an unobserved effects panel data model to examine the impacts of weather on rice yields in Taiwan based upon panel data for 21 prefectures over 2001-2010. In order to deal with the endogeneity of socioeconomic variables, we estimate the model by instrumental variables. We find that there are significant nonlinear relationships between rice yields and effective temperature summation, accumulated precipitation as well as accumulated sunshine hours during the growing season. When effective temperature summation and accumulated precipitation increase by 1%, rice yields will decrease by 0.76% and 0.05%, respectively. On the other hand, when accumulated sunshine hours increases by 1%, rice yields will increase by 0.28%. Lastly, using estimated weather coefficients, we show that climate change caused a net economic loss of 1,104 million NTD in Taiwan’s rice sector during 2001 to 2010. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T09:58:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-105-R01849016-1.pdf: 1787485 bytes, checksum: 06fdd622fc3d73af920e6b6928d76826 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 口試委員會審定書 i
謝辭 ii 中文摘要 iii 英文摘要 iv 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究動機 1 1.2研究目的 2 1.3研究方法與步驟 2 1.4本文架構 3 第二章 文獻回顧與估計原理 5 2.1全球與台灣地區氣候變遷觀測 5 2.1.1全球氣候變遷觀測 5 2.1.2台灣地區氣候變遷觀測 6 2.2影響農業生產之關鍵氣候因子 7 2.3氣候變遷對農業之影響 9 2.4縱橫資料模型之估計 12 2.4.1以OLS或GLS估計 12 2.4.2以工具變數估計 15 2.4.3內生性之來源與工具變數之選取 16 2.4.4以隨機效果或固定效果方式估計無法觀察效果縱橫資料模型 18 2.4.5嚴格外生性不滿足時之無法觀察效果縱橫資料模型 19 第三章 研究方法 21 3.1數理模型 21 3.2實證模型 22 3.3數據之蒐集與處理方式 22 3.4社經解釋變數之內生性 28 3.5樣本描述性統計 29 第四章 實證結果與討論 32 4.1假設無法觀察效果與解釋變數不相關之實證結果 32 4.2假設無法觀察效果與解釋變數相關之實證結果 33 4.3實證結果討論 34 4.4氣候變遷之經濟影響評估 36 第五章 結論與建議 37 5.1結論 37 5.2建議 37 參考文獻 39 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 氣候變遷對農業之影響─來自台灣的實證研究 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: Evidences from Taiwan | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 105-1 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 胡明哲,潘宗毅,柯凱元 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 氣候變遷,農業,稻米產量,無法觀察效果縱橫資料模型,工具變數, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | climate change,agriculture,rice yields,unobserved effects panel data models,instrumental variables, | en |
dc.relation.page | 43 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.6342/NTU201602201 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2016-12-13 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 生物環境系統工程學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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