臺灣信用市場需求與供給之變動：2000年至2012年

Abstract

本文主要針對2000年起台灣信用市場的波動進行分析，並將重點放在2008金融危機前後的變化。本文建構兩種不同模型，第一個模型採用總體資料，分析銀行信用增加或減少的原因，另外也計算不同期間信用市場超額需求的機率，藉以判斷信用需求或信用供給的變動。第二個模型採用製造業廠商個體資料，透過廠商個體資料，能幫助我們利用不同於總體模型的方式分析信用需求變動對於信用市場的影響。總體模型估計結果顯示金融危機前及金融危機後信用市場都有超額需求的情形，金融危機前是需求面上升所致，金融危機後是供給面下降所致。個體模型估計結果顯示金融危機前後，信用市場超額需求沒有顯著的變化，另外也發現銀行信用與其他融資方式具有替代關係。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the variation of the credit market in Taiwan after 2000, and highlight the variation around the 2008 financial crisis. We use the aggregate data and the disaggregate data to build our models. We want to identify demand and supply effects on bank credits and to infer the relative shift of the loan demand and the loan supply. Results from aggregate model indicate the existence of excess demand in the credit market before and after the financial crisis. In the wake of the financial crisis, it is due to the slowdown in supply behind the large credit growth decline. Results from disaggregate model indicate that the existence of excess demand has no significant changes before and after the financial crisis. Another finding is that firms can use other types of financial sources in substitution for bank credits.