利率市場化對中國銀行業及其貨幣政策傳遞的影響分析

Abstract

利率市場化是一國邁向金融自由化的必經路程。隨著利率市場化不斷推進，勢必會對一國商業銀行體系及金融市場的穩定性造成衝擊，就算是近二十年來，不僅經濟快速發展而且還能借鏡國際施行經驗來做相關改革的中國也無法例外。在介紹中國銀行體系與金融市場概況後，本文列出中國政府至少做了七項因應措施以維持利率市場化進程的穩定發展，以及商業銀行面臨利率市場化所帶來各種挑戰的五種因應方式。接著本文會對近十年中國政府所大力培養的上海銀行間同業拆放利率(Shibor)來做更加詳細的介紹與解析。再來中國除了要使市場基準利率順利形成且能夠在金融市場良好運作之外，也必須要建構出完善的利率體系及貨幣政策傳遞機制，才能進一步發揮影響金融體系甚至是實體經濟的功能，並增加中國人民銀行施行貨幣政策的有效性及滲透度，因此本文也會對相關機制來做基礎理論探討及實際施行效果觀察。最後本文會列出個人所認為的十四項中國在利率市場化進程中目前已經或是將來可能會遇到的問題，並給予四項理論上可行的政策建議。總之在這個中國金融改革的重要時點所完成的本篇研究，應是國內首篇關於中國利率市場化進程能同時具備議題完整性以及理論基礎性的專論文章。

In order to realize financial liberalization, China must do interest rate liberalization. After introducing the China commercial banking system and its financial market, this paper suggests that China government has done at least seven measures to maintain the stable development of interest rate liberalization. To increase the effectiveness and penetration of the monetary policy of The People's Bank of China, it is necessary to cultivate the market benchmark interest rate, Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(Shibor), and to discuss the establishment of the money and banking theory and the effect of the actual implementation of the relevant interest rate system and monetary transmission mechanism. Finally, this paper lists fourteen issues that China has considered or will probably encounter in the interest rate liberalization process and gives four theoretically feasible policy recommendations. In sum, it is the first monograph with systematic integrity and theoretical basis about relevant topics in Taiwan.