犯罪地圖政策公佈對房價之探討-以台北市為例

Abstract

台北市犯罪地圖乃為台灣第一個公開的政府公開資訊，此犯罪地圖顯示了犯罪熱點與犯罪熱點所在位置，可以從地圖中明顯觀察出犯罪率高的區域為何。可以間接從各分局的回報資料得知大概台北市各區的竊盜率，但無法直接得知竊盜地點為何。而臺北市政府為提昇城市治安友善度，於2015年10月13日起配合市長「市民安心地圖」政策開放住宅竊盜資料查詢，希望台北市市民能夠提升自我安全的警覺性，而有關單位可以藉此提升治安的維護與加強，打造更好的市民生活品質。住宅竊盜開放資料的查詢台北市並非全球第一，先進城市如紐約、倫敦等，早已搶先台北市提供這項服務。近來開放資料逐漸成為世界各先進城市政策推動趨勢，且唯有將治安資訊公開透明，提供市民完整透明的資訊，才能真正提供市民安心生活的環境。但一方面也遭民眾反彈，民眾深怕公開住宅竊盜的資訊後，將會影響自身居住地點的房價，造成房價下跌。本研究將彌補過往文獻不足的地方，嘗試探討犯罪地圖公佈之後對於台北市房價的影響為何。 本文利用2015年內政部實價登錄資料與台北市政府資料開放平台的犯罪住宅竊盜地點，其中包括台北市、新北市的實價登錄資料4,027筆，其中台北市佔1,484(36.85%)筆新北市佔2,543(63.15%)筆。台北市住宅竊盜從99年至發生地點462筆，其中住宅竊盜發生次數由高到低的區域為中山區、北投區、內湖區，並採用Difference In Differences Model作為實證模型。實證結果顯示短期內，低、中犯罪程度區域對於房價沒有造成顯著的影響，高犯罪程度區域對於房價造成顯著下跌9.7%。長期下公布犯罪地圖，無論在低、中、高犯罪程度並沒有對消費者造成影響。故本研究證明了在短期內公布犯罪地圖，確實會對房價造成下跌，但長期而言對房價的影響並不顯著。

Taipei City crime map is a part of public information policy in Taiwan. In order to enhance the security of urban area and improve the awareness of the residents, Taipei City Government Promulgated 'Citizen's Relief Map' policy on October 13, 2011. For the government, it is a struggled trading off between lower crime rate and disturbance on local housing market. On the other hand, the residents may appreciate the transparency of crime hot spots while they may be afraid of impairment of their property values. Therefore, this study examine the effect of revealing crime map on property value in Taipei City. The data used in this study is an administrative dataset - Actual Price Registration of System Dataset combined with Taipei Municipal Government dataset of illegal residential theft sites. After dropping missing variables and outliners, the total sample is 4,027 which is comprised of Taipei City and New Taipei City, accounting for 1,484 (36.85%) and 2,543 (63.15%) respectively. We adopt Difference-in-Differences (DiD) as the empirical model to evaluate the effect on local housing market. The empirical results indicate that the short-term, low and medium crime group have insignificant impact on house prices, and the high crime group drop significantly by 9.7%. Long-term announcement of the crime map, both in the low, medium and high degree of crime group are insignificant. To sum up, this study has empirically proved that the revealing of crime maps will indeed cause a decline in housing prices in the short term while the impact on housing prices faded after few weeks.