人民幣國際化下之兩岸跨境匯率避險策略分析

Abstract

811 匯改是人民幣市場化的重要進程，但貶值預期帶來資本外流壓力，及爾後為了阻擋人民幣貶值所採取資本控管政策，令市場懷疑中國當局人民幣國際化的決心。目前中國經濟正處於下行的周期，建議中國當局可以將之前開放的節奏放緩，在風險可控及人民幣匯率穩定下，再逐步放開資本賬戶，重建投資者信心，其中可經由試點在上海自貿區開放人民幣自由兌換機制，一來可經由自貿區扮演'隔火牆'角色，降低資本外逃風險，二來維持政策一貫性，繼續放寬人民幣資本項目可兌換，由上海自貿區進行試驗，試驗成功後由上海自貿區成功經驗複製全國；與此同時中國應加速1) 人民幣國際化基礎設施建設，如銀行間債券市場進一步對外開放，實施債券集中市場與銀行間債券市場的互通，改革信評制度讓利率市場化，整合公債與公司債市場，改革會計制度，稅收制度等有效提升境外機構持有中國債券的需求；2) 金融商品供給側的改革，使金融產品豐富化，滿足境內與境外投資者的需求；3) '一帶一路'與'亞投行'計畫，經由'輸出'人民幣，使人民幣成為此區域的參考貨幣，加快人民幣國際化目標。 人民幣在市場化與匯率區間逐步放寬下，匯率波動將是常態，因此兩岸企業在面對部位管理與匯率避險上顯得相當重要，建議企業應加重匯率衍生性金融商品策略來管理外匯曝險部位或經由跨境資金池策略來降低關聯企業人民幣避險成本，避免錯幣所產生匯率風險；此外隨著美國升息，美元和人民幣利差將逐漸縮窄，企業在境外發行離岸人民幣債券需求將會逐步升高，希望政府在兼顧產業經濟發展及投資人權益保障下，持續檢討鬆綁相關法規，開放信評優良的陸企來台灣發行人民幣債券，並允許一般散戶投資人購買人民幣寶島債，成熟台灣資本市場。

On Aug 11, 2015, PBoC announced a move to improve the pricing mechanism of daily fixing rate, with reference to the previous day’s closing rate, as well as taking into account FX market supply-demand and major global currency movements. We believe this new mechanism is a big step of Renminbi Globalization, but following devaluation bring the market pressure of capital outflow, making reform of Renminbi Globalization is going backwards. Given China economic is slowdown, we suggest the authority can gradually release capital account under risk well-controlled and Yuan stability to reconstruct investors’ confidence, which can speed up Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone Renminbi free exchange mechanism. Meanwhile, China authority should accelerate 1) Renminbi Globalization infrastructure, as Inter-bank bond market further opening up, the connection between OTC bond market and inter-bank bond market, integration of government bond and corporate bond markets, and reforming credit rating system, accounting system, and tax system to meet foreign institutor interests ; 2) Supply side reforms of financial market to meet domestic and overseas investors demand ; 3) 'One Belt One Road' and 'Asian Investment Bank' plan by 'exporting' Renminbi as a reference currency for this region, to help speed up the Renminbi Globalization Yuan becomes more market determined currency like G3, the enterprises should emphasize exchange rate hedge by using derivative strategy or through cross border funds pool strategy to reduce their exposure mismatch risk; In addition, along with Fed rate hike this year, enterprises issue offshore Renminbi bond demand will rise. We suggest that the Government should ongoing review of unbundling regulations and allow retail investors to buy Formosa bond, matured Taiwan capital markets.