台灣公務人員年金改革的總體經濟效果

Abstract

本文建立一個一般均衡的生命週期模型，研究2018年台灣實施的公務人員年金改革對總體經濟的影響。我們對年金改革的三項主要政策進行政策實驗，三項主要政策為：延後退休年齡、以平均薪資計算退休金、降低替代率。我們發現透過一般均衡效果，勞工會受到公務人員年金改革的影響。在政府以定額稅融通公務人員退休基金赤字的情況下，年金改革讓定額稅減少，勞工會減少工作時間並增加消費，因此勞工福利改善。而公務人員則是需要延後退休或減少消費，因此福利下降。當上述三個政策同時執行時，公務人員會延後11歲退休，退休金平均下降13.42%，公務人員退休基金赤字減少GDP的1.14%。公務人員與勞工的消費都會上升，但因公務人員延後退休，只有公務人員福利下降。此外，私部門產出下降0.56%，因為勞工減少勞動投入，以及公務人員退休後儲蓄減少造成資本下降所致。

This thesis builds a general equilibrium life-cycle model with the pension systems for workers and civil servants in Taiwan and studies the macroeconomic effect of pension reform for civil servants in 2018. We conduct policy experiments by implementing three central policies separately and simultaneously, which is postponing retirement age, using average salary to calculate pension benefits, and reducing the replacement rate. We find workers are affected by the civil servant's pension reform through the general equilibrium effect. If the government uses lump-sum tax to finance the deficit of pension systems, the result suggests that workers work less and consume more in response to reduced lump-sum tax caused by pension reforms, so they are always better-off. Civil servants always get worse due to increased working years or reduced pension benefits. When adopting all policies together, civil servants postpone their retirement age by 11 years, the average pension benefit decreases by 13.42%, and the deficit of the civil servant's pension system improves by 1.14% of GDP. The average consumption of workers and civil servants increase by 0.51% and 2.66%, respectively. But civil servant's welfare declines. In addition, the private output declines by 0.56% because workers reduce work hours, and civil servants decrease savings.\\