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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 林建甫(Chien-Fu Lin) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Hsiang-Chih Hsueh | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 薛翔之 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-16T08:38:17Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2013-10-16 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2013-10-16 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2013-10-15 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | 周麗芳、林建甫、何金巡 (2003)，'公益彩券的總體經濟計量分析'，臺北：中央研究院經濟研究所。
陳旭昇 (2011)，《時間序列分析：總體經濟與財務金融之應用》，臺北：東華書局。 黃細清、戴龍輝、呂姿慧、黃筱薇、羅瑞宏 (2010)，'公益彩券發行機構甄選作業之探討'，臺北：財政部99年度研究報告。 賴建華 (2006)，'臺灣樂透彩券頭獎加碼效果之研究'，銘傳大學管理研究所博士論文。 熊秉元 (1996)，'公益彩券、制度經濟學、公共選擇'，《經社法治論叢》，17、18期合訂本，41-63。 Csilla Horv th and Richard Paap, 'The Effect of Recessions on Gambling Expenditures,' Journal of Gambling Studies (2012) 28:703–717 Farrell, L., Morgenroth, E. and Walker, I., 'A Times Series Analysis of UK Lottery Sales: Long and short Run Price Elasticities,' Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol.61, No.4, 1999, 513-526. Farrell, J. and Walker, I., 'The Welfare Effect of lotto: Evidence from the U.K.,' Journal of Public Economics, Vol.72, Vol. 1, 1999, 99-120. Larry Deboer., 'Administrative Costs of State Lotteries,' National Tax Journal, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1985, 479-487. Larry Deboer, 'Jackpot Size and Lotto Sales: Evidence from Ohio, 1986-1987,' Journal of Gambling Studies Vol.6(4), Winter 1990. Maria João Kaiseler and Horácio C. Faustino,'Lottery Sales and Per-capita GDP: An Inverted U Relationship,' 2008. Mikesell, John L., 'The Effect of Maturity and Competition on state Lottery Markets,' Pluralistic Industrial Policy, Vol. 6 No.2, 1986, 251-253. Mikesell, John L., and Zorn, C. K., 'State Lottery Sales: Separating the Influence of Markets and Game structure,' Growth and Change, Vol. 18 N0. 3, 1987, 10-19. Mikesell, John L.(1994), 'State lottery sales and economic activity,' National Tax Journal 47(1), 165-171. Rubenstein Ross, and Benjamin Scafidi (2002) 'Who Pays and Who Benefits? Examining the Distributional Consequences of the Georgia Lottery for Education,' National Tax Journal, 55(2), 223-238. Scott, F. A. and Gulley, O. D., 'Rationality and Efficiency in Lotto Markets,' Economic Inquiry, Vol. 33, No 2, 1995, 175-188. Stover, M. E., 'Revenue Potential of State Lotteries,' Public Finance Quarterly, Vol.15, No.4, 1987, 428-440. Vasche, J. D.,'Are Taxes on Lotteries Too High?' Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1985, 267-271. Vrooman, D. H.,'An Economic Analysis of the New York Lottery,' National Tax Journal, Vol.29, No.4, 1976, 482-490. Zur, S. and Itzhak, V.,'State and Frequency of Prizes as Determinants of the Demand for Lotteries,' Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol.52, No.3, 1992, 307-318. 網頁部份 內政部，http://pip.moi.gov.tw/ 中央銀行全球資訊網，http://www.cbc.gov.tw/ 世界彩券協會 (World Lottery Association)，http://www.world-lotteries.org/ 行政院主計總處，http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/ 財政部國庫署，http://www.nta.gov.tw/ 經濟部，http://www.cbc.gov.tw/ 臺灣彩券公司，http://www.taiwanlottery.com.tw/ 臺灣證券交易所，http://www.cbc.gov.tw/ | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/58911 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | 本文以2007年1月至2013年6月的時間序列資料，進行實證分析。透過計量模型，檢視公益彩券銷售金額和總體經濟指標的變化；利用消費者物價指數、失業率、工業及服務業實質平均薪資、工業生產指數年增率、股市成交量、房價趨勢分數、全體貨幣機構放款與投資，以及貨幣總計數(M1B)等，做為解釋變數，驗證公益彩買氣和景氣循環的關聯程度。
實證結果發現，公益彩券銷售金額和公益彩券累積頭獎金額、過年效果，以及全體貨幣機構放款與投資，均呈現顯著正相關；公益彩券銷售金額多寡和工業及服務業實質平均薪資，以及股市成交量具有顯著負相關。 公益彩券銷售金額與消費者物價指數、公益彩券加碼金額有正相關，但效果不顯著；公益彩券銷售金額與失業率、工業生產指數年增率、房價趨勢分數，呈現負相關，同樣不顯著。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract | I use the empirical data from January 2007 to June 2013 to build a model to testify the changes between lottery sales and some important macroeconomic indicators. By using the consumer price index, unemployment rate, real average monthly earnings in industry and services, annual growth rate of industrial production index, the stock market trading volume, real estate trends score, loans and investments of monetary financial institutions, and m1b, I try to validate the relationship of the macroeconomic variables with the lottery sales.
The result of the model shows that there is a significant positive correlation between lottery sales and the amount of jackpot lottery. Moreover, New Year effect, loans and investments of monetary financial institutions, both have a significant positive correlation with the lottery sales. On the contrary, there is a significant negative correlation between the lottery sales and the real average monthly earnings in industry and services, also with the stock market trading volume. Furthermore, the result shows that there is a positive correlation between the amount of lottery sales and consumer price index, but not significant. Meanwhile, there is also a positive correlation between the extra amount of lottery bonus and the sales, but not significant. Last but not least, the amount of lottery sales is negative correlated with the unemployment rate, annual growth rate of industrial production index, and real estate trends score, though not significant. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-16T08:38:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-102-P00323011-1.pdf: 1229318 bytes, checksum: 16f0c7c22809f5d07af23d933951af86 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論……………………………1
1.1 研究動機與背景……………………4 1.2 研究目的與架構……………………5 第二章 文獻探討………………………8 2.1 彩券總體經濟模型相關文獻………8 2.2 彩券行銷策略相關文獻……………9 第三章 公益彩券現況描繪……………11 3.1 公益彩券種類………………………11 3.2 公益彩券行銷策略…………………17 第四章 研究資料與假說………………20 4.1 研究資料……………………………20 4.2 研究假說……………………………22 第五章 實證資料結果分析……………30 5.1 敘述統計量…………………………30 5.2 單根檢定……………………………33 5.3 多元迴歸模型估計…………………37 5.4 殘差檢定……………………………44 5.5 實證結果與分析……………………45 第六章 結論……………………………50 6.1 研究結論與限制……………………50 6.2 政策建議與未來可能研究方向……51 參考文獻…………………………………52 | |
| dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
| dc.subject | 公益彩券 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 景氣循環 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 工業及服務業實質平均薪資 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 股市成交量 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | 全體貨幣機構放款與投資 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject | Loans and Investments of Monetary Financial Institutions | en |
| dc.subject | Business Cycle | en |
| dc.subject | Real Average Monthly Earnings in Industry and Services | en |
| dc.subject | Lottery | en |
| dc.subject | Trading Value of TWSE | en |
| dc.title | 公益彩券銷售量與總體經濟指標分析 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Analysis of Public Welfare Lottery and Macroeconomic Index | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 102-1 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 吳中書(Chung-Shu Wu),林金龍(Jin-Lung Lin),張焯然(Jow-Ran Chang) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 公益彩券,景氣循環,工業及服務業實質平均薪資,股市成交量,全體貨幣機構放款與投資, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | Lottery,Business Cycle,Real Average Monthly Earnings in Industry and Services,Trading Value of TWSE,Loans and Investments of Monetary Financial Institutions, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 54 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2013-10-15 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 社會科學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 經濟學系 | |
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