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標題: | 外資對亞洲新興市場之影響與台灣因應之道 The Impacts of Foreign Institutional Investors on Asian Emerging Markets and the Strategic Thinking of Taiwan |
作者: | Chao-Huan Lin 林照寰 |
指導教授: | 李存修 |
關鍵字: | 外資,新興市場,投資策略, Foreign,Emerging Markets,Strategic, |
出版年 : | 2014 |
學位: | 碩士 |
摘要: | 資本市場瞬息萬變,成熟市場與新興市場間資金流動頻繁且常為全球關注所在。本文主要探討外資對於新興市場的影響,以求對國際市場現今發展及未來趨勢能更加瞭解,同時並針對台灣資本市場進行分析以求可能的影響,而提供主管機關策略思考的方向,冀求日後市場能更順利的發展。
外國資金流入新興市場股市,並非都採取長期持有的投資策略,而是以追求成長及分散風險為最高原則。若是新興市場成長不如預期,或歐美成熟市場復甦相對穩定,沽值(Valuation)相對具吸引力,或是貨幣寬鬆政策退場(QE Tapering),流動性相對緊縮時,便會有吸引資金回流成熟市場的現象,而美元亦將相對走強,此時為避風險,新興市場則會有資金大幅淨流出現象(Carry Unwind)發生。 台灣畢竟是亞洲新興市場的一員,不可能自外於大環境的變遷,而台股(台幣)亦將隨熱錢上升與下跌,此時隨著美國QE(Quantitative Easing)逐漸退場甚至未來將要升息,都必定對新興市場及台灣股、匯市造成極大的衝擊。 中、長期來看,隨著中國的崛起及韓國產業與資本市場的升級,台灣若未能趕上腳步與科技產業轉型成功,則台灣資本市場將更進一步面臨邊緣化的危機。 台灣執政當局(含主管機關)必須理解外資對台灣資本市場的重要性與如何有效招商引資,並有效重建國內資產管理產業,提昇投資人信心,有健全的國內資產管理產業(內資)才能有效抵銷外資進出台灣股市的衝擊。 Capital markets are dynamic and hard to predict. In this report, we explore the potential impacts from foreign investors (capitals) to emerging markets (Taiwan equity markets in particular) & also try to identify any associated opportunities & risks for the Authorities’ further consideration and actions. The rule of thumb for foreign investors’ investments into emerging market is to look for “higher growth and better diversification” outside of their own countries. On the other hand, we would see massive fund reversal back to the developed world (so called safe assets) if the reality (expectation) has gone to the other way, such as lower relative economic growth, richer valuation and tighter liquidity situation within emerging markets! Taiwan, as a member of Asian emerging markets, is surly impacted by the fluctuation of foreign capitals. At this very moment, Taiwan equity and foreign exchange markets are largely moving alongside with news flows of US QE Tapering and potential rate hikes in the coming months! Hence, it is important to be aware of any possible impacts and risks in markets! Also, the “marginalization” risk is very real for Taiwan capital markets in the foreseeable future in light of the strong rises of China and Korea within Asian emerging markets. As a result, it is certainly crucial for Taiwan to step up for quicker migration of technology sectors and capital market reform. Further relaxation on Taiwan capital markets and having a strong domestic asset (wealth) management industry are the keys to mitigate the potential capital outflows from foreign investors. Moreover, it is essential for Taiwan Authorities to comprehend the nature of foreign investors (capitals) and also utilize them wisely so that we would have had a more efficient and healthier capital markets in Taiwan. |
URI: | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/58555 |
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