台灣生乳需求量與產量之分析

Abstract

近年來食品安全意識抬頭，2008年三聚氰胺毒奶粉造成多名嬰兒死亡的事件影響，民眾對於食品安全有更高的要求，也更看重購買商品之食品明細標簽與合格檢驗；而今年（2014）一開始，因為鮮乳內含有非法添加劑，多家廠商遭行政院農業委員會驗出不合格，導致台灣民眾對於乳製品信心不足，引發民眾產生鮮奶是否安全的疑慮，也有部分消費者懷疑鮮奶真正的生乳含量可能不符合法律規範，更有可能市售的鮮乳產品摻入化學添加劑或還原乳調配而成。台灣民眾對於鮮乳的消費量有逐年上升的趨勢，不難得知鮮乳對於民眾生活影響重大。 有鑒於此，本研究透過Chinese National Standards (CNS)國家標準法規的規範，計算台灣乳製品消費市場總量所需的生乳原料數字，並搭配酪農戶提供的生乳總量做分析，釐清台灣整體乳產業銷售市場的現況，配合文獻指出的台灣歷年來剩餘乳以及混充還原乳等問題，分析台灣整體乳產業的概況並與國外概況做比較。 由CNS法規而擬定出來的兩個模型計算得知，近20年來台灣的酪農戶提供的生乳總量數字，與乳製品消費市場所需要的生乳總量數字並不一致，酪農戶提供的生乳遠不足消費市場所需的生乳量，歷年來的差距從0%~30%皆有，而大致近五年來的概況為10%~20%，若再配合剩餘乳的問題，則可以更明顯發現實際生乳的使用量與所需要的生乳量不符；由於進口奶粉沖泡成還原乳的價格比直接購買生乳的價格低，所以可能部分廠商為了壓低成本而以還原乳調製乳製品。 台灣的環境不利荷蘭乳牛的成長，導致酪農戶成本高，使得生乳價格也高，整體市場概況則需要酪農戶與乳廠商配合才能達成均衡。

Formula contaminated by melamine in 2008 brought about increasing death rates of infant. So the safety of food has increased gradually in recent years. People have more requests for food safety and pay much attention to labels on outer packing. At the beginning of this year (2014), many dairy factories had been found unqualified by the Council of Agriculture Executive Yuan. In view of this, people lost their confidence of dairy products. A part of consumers doubt that the portion of raw materials in milk did not conform to the norm of law, and milk may incorporate with comical additives. So this study analyzed Chinese National Standards and data between consumer market and dairy farming. Additionally, past documents indicated that the remaining milk and the reconstituted milk were serious over the years. The study analyzed this overall dairy industry and compared with overseas situations. This study used two hypothetical formulas for calculating data of dairy products in the past 20 years. And the consumer market of raw milk was far higher than the supply of dairy farms. The shortage of raw milk was 0% to 30% in the past 20 years, and it was 10% to 20% in the past 5 years. Besides, if this situation integrated with remaining milk, and the lack of raw milk would become more serious. The environment of growing milk cows was not suitable in Taiwan so that farms needed more cost, and this situation took the price of raw milk much higher than other countries. In order to build a harmony dairy industry, it needs consumer market and dairy factories to have coordination.