犯罪率之總體計量研究

Abstract

本研究利用總體計量模型探討犯罪率對於經濟社會的影響，首先回顧過去犯罪率和經濟相關文獻建構犯罪活動部門，並將其加入總體經濟計量模型當中，用以探討犯罪率與總體經濟之間的互相關係。 本文主要研究利用情境分析探討犯罪率與警政支出對於經濟體之衝擊，並找出最適警政支出。研究結果顯示犯罪率與經濟帶有負向關係。而警政支出增加雖然可以有效遏止犯罪活動，但同時政府必須要藉由課稅和舉債的方式來取得資金，反而對經濟體帶來不良影響，因此發現在警政支出增加10%左右時藉由遏止犯罪帶動經濟成長最為有效，藉此提供一種最適政策支出的計算方式，同時也為本研究的主要貢獻。

In this study we use the macro-econometric model to research the impact of crime rate for social economy.Initially,by reviewing relevant papers about crime rate and economy to constract criminal activity sector to explore the role of crime rate to macroeconomic environment in Taiwan. The main purpose and contribution of the study is to find the optimal police expenditure by performing the scenario analysis about the impact of crime rate and police expenditure to economy. The study shows exist the negative relationship between crime rate and economic growth rate. The police expenditure increasing can lower the crime rate, but government will get the fund by increase taxes and borrow money on bond leading to negative impact on economy. So the study showing the optimal police expenditure increasing ten percent is the most efficient on pushing economic growth rate. This study provide a method to calculate the optimal government expenditure.