台灣服務業附加價值之估計:1910-1951

Abstract

台灣的 GDP 官方統計資料是從1951年開始,學者過去曾估計1910--1950年的國內生產毛額,但在服務業的產值是以間接方法推估。 本文主要採附加價值法, 加入新的資料,重新估計這段時期的服務業生產毛額。 本文的推估結果顯示,服務業產出波動戰前大於戰後時期,成長率則是戰後高於戰前。 另外, 服務業在1918--1920年與1941--1945年發生衰退,金融業則除了以上兩個期間, 在1925--1930年亦發生衰退。

Official record of GDP statistics in Taiwan began in 1951. Past Research has estimated the statistics through 1910 and 1950, but there was some flaw in the data of service sector, which has troubled researcher who are interested in the Japanese and early post-war period in Taiwan. This paper use value-added method and new data to estimate the service sector's output, the new estimation technic is rigorous and credible. The data show that fluctuation of output in the service sector was larger in the pre-war period then post-war period, while growth rate was larger in the latter. In 1918--1920 and 1941--1945, service sector declined in output. In addition, financial industry suffered decline in 1925--1930.