以科技接受模式探討中國大陸智慧養老服務——以「老人幫」APP為例

Abstract

人口老化(Aging)是指因出生率降低和/或預期壽命延長導致年齡中位數增加的現象，是21世紀亞洲各國面臨的重要社會問題。 中國大陸人口老化問題較已開發國家地區嚴峻。中國大陸人口總量世界第一，這也意味著中國大陸擁有龐大的老年人群體，自1999年開始中國大陸正式進入老齡化社會，2018年老年人口為1.67億人，佔中國大陸總人口的11.9%，雖然老年人口的增加對於市場來說是一個非常大的機會，老齡化產業成為一個潛力巨大的朝陽產業，據調查，2010年至2019年期間，從事養老相關行業之公司從0.95萬家增長至12.47萬家，近13倍的增長（證券時報網，2020），2010年老年消費規模達到1萬億元，預計2020年將達到3.3萬億元，2040年將達到17.4萬億元，佔GDP比例將從8%增長至33%左右，可見養老市場的可觀性，但對於中國大陸而言進入老齡化社會時人均GDP剛超1美元，如何面對老年市場也是一種考驗，照顧人力與經濟的需求也是不可忽視的一點；中國大陸「未富先老」，在成為富裕國家之前面臨嚴峻的人口阻礙；中國養老產業和政策發展相對滯後，其體現在老人照護人力不足，以及應對老齡化政策有待改進等。其中又以老年人照護力不足最為嚴重。為解決這個問題，中國大陸積極推動「互聯網+」智慧養老服務模式，通過平臺整合解決養老的現實困境。 因此本研究望通過「老人幫」APP為載體研究老人對於「互聯網+」智慧養老服務模式的接受程度，為中國大陸發展「互聯網+」智慧養老服務模式提出建議。 本研究首先對科技接受模式、信任理論、老化相關理論等相關文獻；目前國際相關智慧養老發展等進行梳理。科技接受模型為基礎，結合研究需求，提出可能影響老人使用智慧養老服務意願的信任相關因素，進而形成新的、適切得科技接受模型，編輯研究問卷。選擇中國大陸浙江省杭州市55歲以上至老人為研究對象進行問卷調查研究，收集處理調查資料，用以SPSS24.0軟件為資料分析工具，進行敘述性分析、信度、效度、相關分析等方法，各分析方法分述：一方面，利用信度、效度分析對問卷進行修訂形成最終問卷，另一方面，通過相關分析、路徑分析探索老人對於「老人幫」APP之接受程度影響因素。研究結果發現：（1）老人對於「老人幫」app的知覺有用性與使用態度成正相關（2）老人對於「老人幫」app的知覺易用性與使用態度成正相關（3）老人對於「老人幫」app的知覺易用性與知覺有用性成正相關（4）老人對於「老人幫」app的知覺有用性與行為意向成正相關（5）老人對於「老人幫」app的使用態度與行為意向成正相關（6）老人對於「老人幫」app的信任度與知覺有用性成正相關（7）老人對於「老人幫」app的信任度與知覺易用性成正相關（8）老人對於「老人幫」app的信任度與知使用態度成正相關。論文最後根據實證研究結果，歸納整理了研究結論，并結合政府、企業提出了具體的應對措施和建議。

Aging is a phenomenon of increasing median age due to decreased birth rate and/or increased life expectancy, and is an important social problem that Asian countries are facing in the 21st century. The population aging problem in mainland China is more severe than that in developed countries and regions. Mainland China has the first total population in the world, which also means that Mainland China has a huge elderly population. Since 1999, Mainland China has officially entered an aging society. In 2018, the elderly population was 167 million people, accounting for 11.9% of the total population in Mainland China. The increase in the elderly population is a very large opportunity for the market, the aging industry has become a sunrise industry with great potential. According to the survey, from 2010 to 2019, the number of companies engaged in old-age related industries increased from 0.95 million to 124,700, nearly 13 times the growth of 2010 (Securities Times Network, 2020). In 2010, the elderly consumption reached 1 trillion yuan, which is expected to reach 3.3 trillion yuan in 2020 and 17.4 trillion yuan in 2040, accounting for about 33% of GDP. It proved that the elderly care market is considerable. However, for mainland China, when it entered an aging society, the per capita GDP was just over $1. How to deal with the elderly market is also an ordeal with the ignored demand for manpower and economy. China gets old before getting rich, and before becoming a rich country, it faces severe population obstacles. China's old-age industry and policy development are relatively lagging behind, which is reflected in the lack of manpower for the care of the elderly, and the need to improve policies to cope with aging. Among them, the manpower for elderly care is the most serious problem. In order to solve this problem, mainland China actively promoted the 'Internet +' intelligent elderly care service model to solves the practical dilemma of elderly care through platform integration. Therefore, this study tend to study elders’ acceptance of the 'Internet +' intelligent elderly care service model by taking the 'elderly help' APP as the carrier, and put forward suggestions for the development of the 'Internet +' intelligent elderly care service model in mainland China. In this study, the relevant literatures were sorted out such as scientific and technological acceptance model, trust theory, aging related theory, and the current international development of intelligent elderly care. Based on the science and technology acceptance model and combining with the research needs, the trust related factors that may affect the willingness of the elderly to use intelligent elderly care services were proposed. After then, a new and appropriate science and technology acceptance model was formed and the research questionnaire was edited. The elderly over 55 years old in Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China were selected as the study subjects to conduct a questionnaire study. The survey data was collected and processed, and SPSS 24.0 software was applied as a data analysis tool to conduct narrative analysis, reliability, validity, correlation analysis and so on. Each analysis method was described: on the one hand, the questionnaire was revised using reliability and validity analysis to form the final questionnaire, and on the other hand, the factors influencing the acceptance of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' APP were explored through correlation analysis and path analysis. Results showed that: (1) The perceptual usefulness of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the attitude of use; (2) The perceptual ease of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the attitude of use; (3) The perceptual ease of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the perceptual usefulness; (4) The perceptual usefulness of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the behavioral intention; (5) The attitude of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the behavioral intention; (6) The trust of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the perceptual usefulness; (7) The trust of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the perceptual ease of use; (8) The trust of the elderly for the 'geriatric help' app was positively correlated with the attitude of use. Finally, according to the empirical research results, we summed up the research conclusions, and put forward specific countermeasures and suggestions by combining with the government and enterprises.