共軍專業化與自主性之博弈：《解放軍報》與《中國國防報》的內容分析 (2010-2013)

Abstract

改革開放以來，隨著解放軍現代化及專業化改革，逐漸在國防、外交政策方面，發現軍方出現不同於黨的聲音。據此，本文的研究問題有二，第一個問題是共軍的自主性，擬探討中共積極推動國防現代化與軍隊專業化的同時，是否使得解放軍出現不同的組織自主性，得以在外交政策上表現出與黨中央不同的態度；又或者軍方依舊是在黨的掌握之下？第二，本文欲檢視《解放軍報》、《中國國防報》在呈現東海、釣魚島以及南海議題的相關報導時，若牽涉到解放軍的利益，是否會呈現不同的風貌？不同之處為何？ 本文採取「定量內容分析法」（Qualitative Content Analysis），分析及統計《解放軍報》及《中國國防報》所呈現之新聞及評論等報導內容，進行頻數統計，並以統計結果證明假設成立與否。同時，也採取「文獻研究法」（Literature Survey），選擇特殊的發言者，檢閱相關國內外期刊文章、專書論著、其他新聞報紙以及網路資料等，補充「內容分析法」分析結果不足之處。至於研究途徑，本文從軍事專業主義的論述推論出研究假設，預測解放軍專業化後的自主性增加。根據研究結果顯示，報導確實有偏離黨中央言論，但經常作出特殊言論的發言者及其發言內容，卻出現黨默許存在的現象。因此，推測應存在兩種可能的解釋。第一種可能性是，軍報呈現的「自主性」為「偽自主性」，或是「被操縱與默許的自主性」，可作為黨對外談判折衝的籌碼，因而刻意默許軍方的言論。第二種可能性則是，軍方已擁有「有限度的自主性」，共黨菁英可能存在宣傳路線不統一等現象，讓軍方有了操作的空間，得以發表激烈的言論，也可藉機向黨爭取更多的籌碼。

Since 1980s, PLA has marched toward modernization and professionalization reforms, and achieved remarkable success in many aspects. One of my research questions is about the military autonomy of People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With modernization in national defense and military professionalization, does PLA comes out its organizational autonomy, which makes it has different attitude in diplomatic and defense policy? Or is the dissenting announcement of the military still under the party’s control? Another question is whether PLA have distinct attitudes toward the conflicts of East China Sea, Diaoyu Islands, and South Asia Sea in the layout, reports, and editorials. This essay chose ‘Qualitative Content Analysis Approach’ to analyze and gather statistics of the report comment and editorials in PLA Daily and China National Defense Daily. Also, ‘Literature Survey Approach’ will be adopted to analyze those figures that made special comments in the newspapers. Besides, concerning the research method, this article deduces the research hypothesis from the viewpoints of the discussion of military professionalization, which means during the professionalization, the military gradually retreats from the civilian area and struggle its autonomy in military area, but it won’t go against the party. At the end of this essay, it comes up two possible results. One of possibilities is that the rising military autonomy is fake, which means the autonomy is manipulated and acquiesced by the party. The other is that PLA already has limited autonomy, which means the party elites may have different opinions, and the military elites get more freedom of speech.